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How are you ensuring that your entry/exit targets are actually hit? Being inside the OHLC is not enough.

Disagree. The effective money supply has been shrinking for a while, and will continue to shrink for quite some time due to the ongoing economic difficulties. I expect to see tepid growth with significantly higher interest rates, with all that implies.

You can only get assigned if the options finish in the money. The alternative to what they did is to let in-the-money options go un-exercsied, in which case you would have lost the gain on your position. My advice would be to write this off as a little "market tuition" and NEVER put yourself...

If you know the rules, and you know you're getting assigned over the weekend, why on earth would you let yourself get into such a position? Consider yourself lucky if the pound of flesh they extract for your error is only a flesh wound, and move on.

This is what I'm trying to say - you CANNOT tell which factors "must" affect the result by data-mining like this. All you can do is fit curves. To determine which factors "must" affect the result, you have to go back to fundamentals of market mechanics and find the causal link between the...

Way too many factors - use less inputs. On a more fundamental note - what exactly are you trying to accomplish? Because from your brief description, it sounds like you are actually TRYING to curve-fit. So you should be commended for achieving what you set out to do. :)

Nice link. Really like this quote:

If you are looking for a concrete example of a formal definition of trend, look up the Turtles work (PDF floating around somewhere). There are many others, Turtles is a useful place to start because pretty much everyone knows what you're talking about. If what you're actually asking for is a...

And here's the proof that common sense is not so common. It's a free bet - the cost to play is zero - they are by definition both excellent bets because the expectancy on both is an infinite multiple of the risk.

That would be like trying to prove Shakespeare is a great writer to someone who doesn't even know what an alphabet is. I don't do lost causes - believe what you want to believe. Cheers.

Yes, I do. That statement clearly indicates you have no clue about evolutionary theory, so you'll probably serve your cause best by not talking about it.

The current administration was not only elected - it was RE-elected. So yes, the American electorate is absolutely 100% getting what it deserves.

It takes all of 30 seconds looking at a chart of inflation-adjusted gold prices to see that's been a losing trade for 25 years running.

Yes, you are correct, apologies for the typo.

Other fun data points. Total public debt outstanding on Sept. 29: $9.9B Total public debt outstanding as of Friday: $10.3B The debt ceiling was just raised to $11.3B - at this rate it will be hit in under six weeks - unless something changes.

Here's a version to put it in historical context. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BORROW

It is still below yesterday's close. This is a definition of "surge" with which I am not entirely familiar. Looks like year-over-year revenue growth was 2% - might have something to with it.

Sure there were - he made a killing on the oil bubble. Black swans aren't limited to bearish events. Investors who left Empirica by and large got caught wholesale by the CDS mess. It's tough for a typical money manager to put funds in a place like Taleb's because our reporting structure is...

This is a joke, right?

It was the continuous marking down from $xxxB to $xB that did the damage.