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Uh... what do you mean? I'm not saying there is any free lunch, or riskless arbitrage in this. There is not. Just that it is very expensive to hold a long position in oil as long as the "futures curve" is so steep. But the flip-side is, if you are short, you have the wind behind your back.

Assume that spot oil is at $70, and stays there for the rest of the year. Since futures are higher than that, but must equal spot at expiration, they must (slowly) decline towards $70 as expiration approaches. In reality the prices fluctuate, but the spread between futures and spot still...

This is correct. Unlike GLD and SLV, which own gold and silver, USO does not own physical oil, but oil futures instead. Due to the structure of the market it is very expensive currently to own USO as a long-term investment. So, unfortunately for all the conspiracy theorists, there is no fraud...

Such a fun sport. Let's try: TODAY WE SAW THE TOP. Just downhill from here. Targets: SPX 666, NDX 666.

If the yield curve inversion reaches 50bp, recession probability rises to 100%. Has it been that inverted yet?

What do you base this prediction on? What would trigger that spike, and do you expect any slowdown in the economy by year-end?

I am betting oil will hit $50 before it rises to $100. Too many "know" oil is going to $100. Just had our finance minister on TV talking how oil will only rise in price. Sure sell signal when a politician is bullish.

Why futures? Try the DIA or the SPY. There you can take as small a position as you find tolerable.

Here we just had the finance minister on TV babbling about how the world will certainly run out of oil, and that the price of oil will only move up in the future. When politicians are bullish, it's time to SELL.

And the most important factor is not even considered: female attractiveness. Then it would be no contest. :D

Must be the typical mentality nowadays, "soft landing". Still living in denial. Sad.

Seems to happen in every instrument, at least in futures. Is there any solution to this, other than continuous refreshing? (which messes up the zoom)

Bonds seem to be swinging back from excess inflation fears, too.

Glad to be crazy. But tell us something new. All of the above has been priced in a long time ago. For oil to go up more than a few bucks you'd need a real war (with Iran), a huge huge (natural) catastrophe, or something else genuinely surprising. Otherwise it just seems to be grinding slowly...

Thanks for those links. Very interesting indeed.

Now this sounds like a really really nice car. Wonder how much will it cost. How long will the batteries last, and how much will it cost to replace them? Are they going to sell this power system to other manufacturers too?

Ha! Sounds like we have seen at least a short-term if not THE FINAL top in oil. Just a bit too many voices shouting this same message everywhere. (btw, where are they now?? very quiet here in the last few days) Perhaps the PEAK OIL theorists mean a peak in the PRICE of oil? :D

Sounds simple enough. Are there any old exams / quizzes / other practice available on the internet? [B] Not hedged, but even 5:1 is usually enough. Do prop firms usually offer trading also in futures, forex etc? And why don't retail firms offer this prop option for those who pass the...

What's this mystical series 7? Difficult to get? How much work? And how much leverage do prop firms offer to directional swing and position traders, i.e. overnight holders? There's enough leverage in futures, but the 2:1 in stocks could be improved on.

Yes, I was looking at a 2-min chart. Just didn't find any narrow bar in NEM at that time. Perhaps we have different data in our charts. Posting your charts would probably help. Otherwise your strategy appears sensible. 12 cents risk (or less) sounds appropriate in the time frame you are...