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Reminds me of a guy on another website forum I used to visit. His market predictions were so consistently wrong, I'm sure you could have made money doing the opposite. He described himself as a contrarian. Bitcoin was his favourite poison too.

Pull up a long-term chart of BTC. It's not that hard to spot the start of a possible parabolic move, and get in fairly early, and then get out when it starts to fizzle out. Unless you think BTC is going to undergo a sudden step-change revaluation, say from $30k to $100k over a few days. Gold...

If it can clear 2100 then it may be game on.

Yes but go easy on adding sophistication, otherwise you can fall into the trap of curve fitting. https://www.thechartist.com.au/over-optimization-or-curve-fitting

I think I read that, out of the 19.5 million coins mined so far, an estimated 6 million have been lost. That leaves around 13.5 million available to trade. How many of these are in long term storage and never traded? Around 900 new coins ($24m) are mined a day, which I imagine is small...

Waiting for Tether to collapse is a bit like waiting for USD to collapse. You could be waiting a long time...

Can you find something* which is going up at the moment? If so, why not open a long position and hold it until it stops going up? Alternatively, can you find something* which is going down at the moment? If so, why not open a short position and hold it until it stops going down? * There are...

Yes, they could do this with the lighting circuits if they wanted to stick with standard 12V bulbs.

On the low voltage side, going from 12V to 48V would actually be a sixteenth because power is proportional to V². However, the 450V 3-phase AC side for the motor uses a lot of copper, so a quarter overall could be in the right ballpark. Of course, it will mean Teslas using non-standard 48V...

Yep, as long as you treat it as gambling for fun, then no problem. Unfortunately some folks won't treat it this way, and will learn the hard way. Some may even up with more of a problem than just losing money.

The difficulty with these meme coins is that you'd be crazy to wager anything more than a miniscule % of your TNW on them. The risk of them crashing and burning is too high, and they move so fast that you might not be able to get out in time to prevent an enormous loss. If you (wisely) only...

I'm still holding a leveraged silver investment from 2013 which is deep underwater. (Not one of my smarter moves. :rolleyes:) I did think about dumping it, and sticking the proceeds in BTC, but in the end decided to let it ride. It's not worth a lot, so it doesn't matter much either way. It...

If anyone wants to study the OP's posts (to try and discover the secret sauce :D), the attached PDF is a bit more convenient than trawling through the thread.

PS. the Morningstar link seems to be working ok now.

Do you mean commodity mutual funds, ETFs or something else? I was going to suggest Morningstar but the commodity funds link currently isn't working. https://www.morningstar.com/commodity-funds

Ponder this question: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/why-is-the-obvious-not-so-obvious.151802/page-17#post-2344221 And followed up here: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/why-is-the-obvious-not-so-obvious.151802/page-22#post-2345712 One possible answer might be to try a different...

And potentially your sanity. :D

If BTC becomes one of the biggest assets in the world, then a large drawdown would be a huge worldwide wealth shock. I can't imagine that this wouldn't have a massive impact on the entire financial system.

Imagine if it got to $10M (market cap $200T), and then had a 75% drawdown like the one we've just had. :D Even a 75% drawdown from $1m ($15T loss) would cause a few financial ripples.

I don't know what the US, and other governments/central banks around the world, could do to stop BTC but somewhere along this trajectory you can bet your bottom dollar they'd try. Price of BTC.....Market Cap $25k.......................$0.5tn $100k....................$2tn...