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I do my charts manually in Excel by entering the relevant data. It sure does give me a level of intimacy with the numbers that slick charting software can never replicate. The irony is that I don't actually use the charts for anything important, but just the discipline of doing it helps me stay...

One epiphany is that when trading is done correctly, there is no distinction between trend-following, reversion to mean, counter-trend, momentum or any other type of trade designation of that sort. There is one entry price that unites all of them.

I look at myself as aspiring to be "the smartest dumb money".

Seems to me like if you want to use this level of precision in entering, you need to enter after price has gone through your entry price in "opposite direction" and is now coming back, i.e. if you want to enter at 6, you need to set up your stop limit buy order when price is under 6. Then, it...

I'm not familiar enough with your entire oeuvre to cite your pronouncements correctly, so you'll excuse me if I don't try.

The other problem with the idea of a "slow motion crash" is that empirical evidence shows that declines are faster than rises in financial markets. That's why they say markets "take the escalator up and the elevator down". A "slow motion crash" is a contradiction in terms.

Whenever someone makes a call for a huge downside reversal, I have to ask what they were saying at the beginning of the most recent large-scale rally. So, what were you saying in late November? Since, due to the market's historical upward bias, calling an upside reversal is actually easier...

It's pretty clear that you and I, on the short-term, are not doing anything even remotely similar. I wouldn't think of even considering this kind of trade. We'll have to just compare P&Ls in a year.

Cycles are too inexact, due to the existence of standard deviations within them. I only deal with precise measures. The trade was barely viable under my model and losses are part of the game. None of what you wrote matters to me. Cycles, European market, gaps, etc. are all accounted for by other...

Stopped out overnight at 1379.75

The real problem is that democrats claim to be able to make the government run efficiently and then don't. At least the republicans are up-front about it, rather than overpromising and underdelivering. Do you really think that people would complain as much about the government spending so...

Wait, did you ever think that the "military industrial complex" the Left complains about so much might cease to exist if only those who foot the bill voted whether to continue or not? If all of those expenses really don't bring any benefit to those of us who don't derive our compensation from...

Short ES at 1377.5

http://www.uce3.ucsb.edu/WP_034.pdf "The U.S. housing collapse in 2007 is widely blamed for inducing a financial crisis that spread to the real economy and caused a severe and prolonged downturn. This paper investigates the role of rising gas prices and a dramatic gas price shock in...

Sorry, I can see that you are quite impressed with your trade and kudos, but I think you're making a bit more out of it than a single trade can bear. So, OK, we'll keep the thread going until we both make 5 calls. Then, if anyone else has the stamina to follow them, they'll see whatever it is...

Given that it could take weeks for my method to generate 5 trading calls, I'll pass. Besides, even if I somehow got all 5 right, would that make you say that I was right in my approach? No, you'd say I was lucky or that 5 is too small a sample size, both of which could also possibly be right...

Saying that price action is "only what happened in the past" (although, obviously, the decisions which you find so important also occurred in the past and, as such, can be revisited at any time following their having been made) completely ignores the fact of autocorrelation. Given that we know...

It's not like your drug dealer analogy at all. And oil price shocks of the magnitude experienced in 2008 are actually not common at all. One could argue that, in inflation-adjusted terms, it was the 2nd-worst oil shock in modern history. When you take into account household debt levels in...

Government spending is just a jobs program for mediocrities who can't compete on the global labor stage and so insulate themselves into work which can't be offshored or subject to domestic competition and then use their bargaining (and voting) power to obtain above market compensation (all-in...

If you know what did happen and you know how to analyze it correctly, you can place profitable trades without knowing why it happened. Or do you deny that there is autocorrelation in prices? As far as I can tell, academics have pretty much given up on the idea that there is no autocorrelation in...