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The selloff in November was worse than what we've seen so far and it eventually resolved to the upside. As I said, I think it is premature to say anything about where this is going to resolve.

You had me until you mentioned needing to look at it as a function of time. Sounds like you are saying the less sensitive, the better, unless you want to use polynomials. Personally, I do not use them, with one exception.

Livermore said that "the first and last eighths are the most expensive". if we really are going into a 2-year ranging market (presumably, this initial leg down will go to the bottom, or near to the ultimate bottom of the range), what this thread is trying to do is catch the "first eighth"...

Get a grip. No one here is going to pay me what I think this approach is worth long-term, so I'm not interested in having the distraction.

OK, so there is a practical difficulty, in some cases. Does that mean that the distinction is invalid and that there really aren't two types of parameter here? I suppose on the most macro level, if a market has been traded for 50,000 days, it can't make sense to use the 50,001 SMA, so not...

I didn't say that. I said that you could see if the posts were quality posts and if they addressed topics beyond the scope of the simplest kind of post and the kind which appears to be your specialty, the 'market call' post, not how many of them there were. Also, if you looked at the threads...

I was thinking about two types of parameters one can use in a model. Open-ended parameters like SMAs or percentage-based filters, where the value used can be anything from zero to infinite and those like percent, where the value can only be within a certain range, like 0% to 100%. Are either...

If I had to guess, he probably doesn't think he's stereotypical because there tends to be a short life for the posters like him, so they are gone by the time the next top caller starts posting. After he's gone, there will be another. If I had a dollar for each top that was not an actual top...

You really think that everyone in the world doesn't see that "dreaded neckline"? You think the people with the money to move the markets "dread" a freaking "neckline"? They are running algorithms where each price print in that "dreaded neckline" is just another piece of data in a time series...

And yet you've failed to notice the correlation between the "typical ET" mentality of calling tops and your own. Clearly, self-awareness is not your forte. If you think the path to riches is paved by the kind of approach to trading that motivates threads like "We are in a slow motion Crash"...

Trying to apply a specific value to the market from which it must regress to the mean is a sure way to lose money. While I agree with the general thesis behind the saying "History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes", trying to tie that general thesis to specific actions is almost always going to...

While I would agree that AAPL looks a little damaged, it isn't "crashing" and if that's what you mean by it "turning the corner", it's very premature to conclude that. I know this, which is that you buy low and sell high when you go long and vice versa if you're going short. So, of course...

Right. The time around 2:15 PM Eastern on a Fed announcement day is going to play out a lot differently than the average day around that time, so I'm not sure that I'd agree time of day is random at all.

The last time you posted about a decline in this thread, two days ago, was near 1360 on the ES. Since then, the low has been 1359 and the high 1388. Did you ever think that you just aren't good at this, except possibly as a contrary indicator?

Why is this in "Trading"? Trying to trade off of a chart of long-term GDP?

On this point, I think our entire economy is on an "oil standard" much the same as it used to be on the "gold standard". This is why "gold bug"-type arguments never really appealed to me. Sure, oil isn't as convenient to carry around as gold, but the main point is that oil's limited availability...

I've also seen research showing time of day effects, so I don't dismiss it offhand, but I do worry about curvefitting. Fortunately, these trades don't make or break the results, so it would just be a matter of potentially missing a few negative expectancy trades along the way.

Not directly, but I have a separate filter for that sort of thing, which seems to work for every other time of day. This seems a bit different than simply that the market moves more around the time of economic news, but I think it is possible that filter is less effective at some times during...

Dividing up my trades by time of day, I see that two specific hours of the day stand out as negative, whereas all others are positive. Is this something others have found, that their strategies simply don't work during certain parts of the day or is it random? Obviously, I will keep collecting...

I think that most of the largest one-day (or very short-term) rallies have actually been within bear markets, so unless the bears in question tried to press their bets too hard on those specific days, they shouldn't have been wiped out, since the market soon reversed and went back down.