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Hi, 1. I think so, but the set-up isn't exactly easy to backtest over a decade or something, so I've really only got accurate data with all of the relevant metrics for 81 examples from the "bad" part and 149 from the "good" part. Those 81 examples from the "bad" part average ~-.25 ES points...

Maybe the total number of start-ups would decrease, but would the number of start-ups which succeed actually go down? Maybe all the threat of prison would do would be to discourage marginal start-ups with no chance of success from ever trying. In other words, not every dumbass with a...

They're not "working for free", they're "working to pay back what they owe". Last I checked, the history books didn't mention that slaves had borrowed any money from the masters for whom they toiled and thus hadn't incurred any obligations to their masters. This woman did. So, unless you have...

A better solution would be to force the person to work off the debt by doing some light admin work, e.g. stuffing envelopes or something simple. That would reduce the costs to the taxpayers of putting the person up in a jail.

Have you tried this approach out on a simulator? If so, was it working? Because my first suggestion to you is to make sure you can make money with it on a good simulator. If this actually works, the market will be there when you're ready to go live.

Thanks! It's a topic that I've been thinking about more lately, so I'm glad to have some feedback. The "stages" are my trading model, so I can't really divulge them. It took a lot longer than I would have liked to figure out that this was what I needed to figure out, but I'm at the point...

"Real" or "fake" may not be the best terms (in fact, I once started a thread called "Stop worrying if moves are real" in response to the many posts worrying about just that), but some of this will depend, as I said in the initial post, on your timeframe. If you are trading as a daytrader, a...

I would classify investors in the 401(k)/IRA/pension plan/endowment category, where they aren't trading in and out, so at any given turn, if that turn lines up with their own cycle for putting money into or taking money out of the market, they can end up anywhere among the other groups. If they...

Good article and the timing of it could hardly have been better (written one week after the March 2009 low). "Stock prices have an annoying habit of turning higher ahead of many (or any) bullish news headlines. For this reason, we suggest the key to identifying extremes lies in the prices...

I should have included as one of the traits of the "dumb money" that they will also be selling to/buying from the smart money during the initial stage of the reversal, depending on whether the "dumb money" was long too early or short too early. If long too early, they will sell to the smart...

I agree that the second group, despite the name I've given them, is the smartest. Their methods are more stable, but, in the short-term provide less stellar returns than the first group. So, the first group always ends up at the top of the yearly returns lists, while the second group ends up at...

For every turn in the market on a given timeframe, I think there are three groups of traders. First is the "smart money". My hypothesis is that this is the group which catches the turn BUT that membership in this group is volatile and there is enough churn in it that no member or group of...

Yes, I am monitoring the boundaries between the good part of the range and the bad part. What I really like is that the "bad part" of the range is still break-even, rather than a complete loser. I don't want to trade it per se because I prefer the meatier part of the range, but it seems that it...

Has Jack Hershey ever started a thread like this? http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=239926 Clearly, I am willing to show people my returns. Just not you.

Hah, I was at that same site a few weeks ago, based on some Google searches I was doing. What if (and this is a big what, and maybe the biggest issue of them all), rather than having "millions of values in between", you actually were testing ALL of the opportunities which existed to test that...

Seeing the discussion and clarifying what I meant for myself, maybe I should have entitled this thread "Single values vs. ranges as model parameters and curve-fitting". Maybe the discussion would have been the same, though, since I'm not saying that I fully buy in to the distinction. But...

But when you are optimizing, why would you take an indicator reading on, to stick with the moving average example, and force it to be a moving average between 10 and 20 periods? You would, at some point, pick the best possible value for the number of periods. If 17 gives you the best results...

Please, man, I have nothing to do with that guy and any overlap in something I say and something he says is pure coincidence. If he said something similar to what I just said, in my opinion it's just "broken clock syndrome" and he got lucky. The guy's posts sicken me.

Market movements confirm in reverse timeframe order, from the smallest time to the largest, so if we haven't confirmed a likely reversal on the November to now timeframe, we sure haven't confirmed one on a multi-year timeframe. So, yes, that chart absolutely might resolve upward.

OK, let me phrase the issue slightly differently, if you don't mind. If I have a one parameter model that can take a value from 0% to 100% (e.g., the parameter measures the odds of some other thing happening) and the outcomes when that parameter value is from 0% to 50% are negative (on average)...