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I was looking at the Bigcharts yield, which shows 5%+. The 12m trailing is 4.38% and that will probably go up due inflation/lower vacancies. So maybe high 4s this year. After tax thats maybe high 3s. So maybe the right number is 1.44M dollars, or about 27 times the annual per capita income (52K)

I need to estimate that for the EU and EMs in general as well but I doubt they will be competitive with Brazil. What happened in Brazil is that scenario that Dalio talked about, where the central bank increases the return on cash to the point where it breaks the economy. All asset classes (other...

I did some calculations. I estimated that it takes about 25 times the average US per capita income to be able to retire from the income off US REITs (after-tax). Which is about $1.3M dollars(Using IYR after-tax dividend). In Brazil, it takes about 12 times the average annual per capita income...

Taleb is not very practical, he talks about having a 90/10 portfolio, where 90% is in "safe" things and 10% in things that benefit from tails (long options, venture capital, biotech etc). But he, as far as I'm aware, never helped the average person by teaching them how to construct a 90% safe...

Buffett recommends concentration and 'going for it' when one finds a quality company that has 'low risk' and a good price. He defines low risk as a 'little to no chance of a permanent loss of capital'. The Einhorn rule would relate to companies that have a real (resonable) chance the investor...

I would say its a little different than tail risk. Tail risk would be unlikely outcomes that are possible but still, unlikely. The 'resonable' part relate more to 2 possible 'baseline scenarios' that can happen (or a range of likely scenarios). Kinda like a Tobacco company going to $0 or...

http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/01/leon-cooperman-markets-much-restrained-optimism/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter Good discussion between Copperman and Siegel on Trump effect in the stock market

I say this even though I do some small cap and mid cap shorting myself. Usually as daytrades and sometimes, reluctantly, as swing trades. But I got no illusions about it, I know I'm taking more risk, not less, than the market. Its just that the risks tend to take time to pop up in the P&L...

Whats interesting is that short selling inherently violates the Einhorn rule, but especially in stocks that are vulnerable to short squeeze dynamics like: -low float stocks -crowded shorts -illiquid stocks -volatile stocks -stocks in volatile industries Einhorn got hurt pretty bad on Volkswagen...

Nassim Taleb is a good rock thrower, he will point out flaws in things like no one else. He can pin point why a model/theory will breakdown, and under what conditions it will break down. He is pretty good at being skeptical towards lots of commonly held ideas what about you can and you can't do...

Why do I believe VRX fits my improvement to the Einhorn rule (the extreme without a substantial change in Resonable Outcomes) because the hit to the industry has been a fraction that it was to VRX for one (making it totally different from Kodak). Its all about this Pearson story and whether or...

I build a graph of this theory. I'm calling it the Einhorn Rule (with an improvement in it)

I'm no statistics expert so I'm not sure my use of the term 'confidence interval' can be applied to this situation. I'm trying to expand on the Einhorn idea because I don't think he fully captured it. In every stock the range of outcomes is wide, every stock could go to $0 or to some really high...

Hempton does raise the good point that in levered business there is more uncertainty around how much the company is worth (or wider 'range of outcomes' like Einhorn would say). That is also true in other cases like in companies with litigation risk The question is, why did he had a 'big...

But Hempton doesn't seem to apply his logic to the HLF situation. Or, more likely, he does but HE PRETENDS that he doesnt. He's got this fake bravado that he is right no matter what, yet if you look back on his HLF posts, he talks about how he had a 'small position in HLF'. He also claimed to...

http://brontecapital.blogspot.com.br/2017/01/when-do-you-average-down.html Hempton did a post on averaging down in stocks, I think its a good post. He is right on his criticism of Ackman in adding to the VRX situation. I mentioned on this journal back in late 2015 that having that much exposure...

Apparently "ETFs are eligible, as long as they are "regulated investment companies" as defined Subchapter M of the Internal Revenue Code." Anyone has a list of all ETFs that are RICs in the US?

I'm a non-US investor and sometimes I got kicked with a withholding tax of 30% on dividend payments from certain ETFs, even when the ETFs were paying interest from the bonds underneath it. Apparently Obama passed an act that exempted a lot of that tax for non-US Pimco has a number of funds that...

You had to pay that tax recently?

The reason I'm putting so much work in trying to find that 'optimal portfolio' is because I got to have something to back a recommendation of a specific allocation. I dont want to just throw numbers around without reasoning, plus it is really helping me understand more about markets, risk and...