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I think there was a decent chance his plane was sabotaged to benefit the criminals. I was thinking about all the people that could die that would benefit the corrupt politicians, he was the one whose death would benefit them the most. Its a conspiracy but I think David Sklansky (the poker...

I never really spent much time researching the UK but this whole Brexit thing is so ridiculous. The way I see, the EUR is like a gold standard for the countries in it, it prevents countries from easing monetary policy when hard times hit. They are subject to the ECB and their germanic...

A supreme court justice judge from Brazil died in a plane crash yesterday. He was the most important one because he was dealing with the corruption scandals of the people that have immunity (politicians currently in office). There is some uncertainty over who will take over as replacement in...

I was thinking about that high interest rates (with high inflation) leading to low PEs and low interest rates (with low inflation) leading to high PEs. Its probably not completely irrational. And even Asness describes some instances where its rational to do that. In my Brazil data, during the...

So there are excess returns to be earned in period of high interest rates likely exactly because of the errors that investors make that Asness describe

CNBC said Trump is supposed to leave inauguration and sign executive orders right after. We will see what comes out of that. Perhaps he will start his 'crazy' act early. As I said, I wouldn't want to be short volatility in his first 30 days. I got a good amount of long-term US bonds, IWM short...

Markets tanking pre-inauguration. I'm playing this through IWM short. Its hard to alert entries and exits as there are too many of them (for good or for ill) but im playing that idea of the Trump dip. We will see if that works

FNMA held up. closed short

shrot FNMA as hedge

If Trump tanks this market at some point this year, I might even consider BRKB long as a Druckenmiller type trade. One that I can use some leverage on, with a stop and where I expect gains soon

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4037907-berkshire-hathaway-potential-95-billion-book-value-growth-year-end-2017?app=1&auth_param=4p0c3:1c81ljv:4a6f1fe7bafd376c2cca91be580ef4e0&uprof=44 This guy is an excellent analyst of BRKB (which I own shares and I'm short puts). He talks about how BRKB is a...

But one can't just look at the real rate in long-term bonds and compare with stocks, it depends on WHY they are rising. if they are rising because of optimism over growth, then it doesn't matter for stocks. More growth will benefit them geometrically. If that real rate is rising because of...

A real risk to the market is that if the Trump policies suck and lead to fiscal problems. In that case the REAL interest rate in bonds will rise and that could be a problem for stocks. That would be a real vs real asset comparrision. If you can earn a 2% real in 30y T-Bonds (from the current...

So the stock market 1)Might rise if growth optimism wins out over high bond yields irrationality 2)Might fall if the irrationality wins. 3)Might not rise much or fall much if there is some kind of tie between the two. But you will get paid dividends plus the 'natural updrift' that stocks have...

I was thinking about the Gundlach theory that stocks will fall as bond yields rise https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/is-gundlach-wrong-when-he-says-a-3-10y-ust-yield-should-send-stocks-down.306056/ I got to do some more investigation about this but its possible that Gundlach will be right...

Gundlach is being vocal about how the 3% yield level for the 10y is a key level that could send stocks down. The issue is that he is using a variation of the 'Fed model' to predict stocks, which historically had serious deficiencies compared to other valuation tools like simple PE ratios Cliff...

Chart from Moody's. IG corp bonds and Junk bonds are vastly different in terms of risk

I have been focusing in doing these types of long-term and super long-term analysis of US stocks because of a theory that I have. Since 2009 US stock have been through some period where they tank 5%, 10%, 15% even close to 20%. Everybody freaks out, panics and thinks its 2008 all over again...

True. Savers are mostly retired people and old folks that don't have the much propensity to consume (other than ordinary expenses) and they already receive a record share of GDP in terms of transfer programs (SS, Medicare Medicaid). If they get extra returns on their savings, I doubt they will...