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Don't let anyone tell you its now a bull market or its now a bear market, and certainly don't act blindly on what they say. Nobody knows with certainty which way the market will go. But certainty of market action is not necessary for profitable trading, only absolute certainty of what you will...

If the Dow re-prints the uptrend signals that I follow, I'll get long again. If it prints a downtrend I'll get short. No need for opinion. I don't own any shares but if I did they would be for life for dividend income.

Some reversal traders eventually strike gold and then they look like geniuses. Of course, the guys who got it wrong and were wiped out are not around to tell the newbies that reversal trading is ultra high risk. Anyway, I don't want to look like a genius, I want to be rich.

What I do now hasn't changed. My trading risk management plan triggered and got me out of my long positions on indices and uptrending stocks. I will get back long again in these and similar when my uptrend set-up signals go green again. Meantime I have shorts and short orders on individual...

The timing - of entry and exit - is not the most important issue in trend-following, but if its important within the context of your strategy, risk management etc., and you cannot reckon the best timing criteria, come at it from the other direction, i.e. figure out what would be the WORST...

Well said speedo, and so far nobody has dropped straight into that stupid 10,000 hours trap.

The ground is littered with the remains of wiped out trading accounts set up by highly qualified professionals from medicine, law, accounting, engineering, teaching - oh yes not forgetting economics. But maybe I might learn something, hence the question and the questioning tone of my answer. I...

I too know what I need to know (to make money) but there are additional benefits to posting - otherwise WTF are we doing here?

On the contrary, these threads give insight into the biases and issues that losing traders carry with them. Knowing what people are doing in order to lose money and why they're doing those things are helpful knowledge. They're fun to bait too.

When price is in an uptrend you should be long. You should stay long until price is more probably going to fall than rise. A moving average or two can help but are not essential.

My interest these days is with who says TA doesn't work and why they say that: whether it does work or doesn't work isn't a question for me any longer. But if there's any doubt whether the simplest trend-following strategy might work, take a look at the last 6 months on AUD/USD, Silver, the Dow...

The biggest change in private retail trading in the markets since 1986 and 1994 has been the opening up and rise of day-trading. New traders today don't consider any other approach. They certainly try to show me they believe long-term trading is not really trading. Intra-day TA is ambiguous and...

I'm not sure this is so, I've never heard there was a direct relationship, just an indirect one - as the real economy grows it demands more of certain commodities which drives their prices up - but surely, we do want the economy to grow? Anyway, looking at the S&P over the last 5 years, it is...

Bubbles are not an issue, its nice to ride the uptrend. Crashes are only a serious issue if you're stuck deep in an illiquid instrument with insufficient alternative income or if the crash is so deep that it disrupts your major income source - either salary or dividend. Maybe also if the firm...

Make a plan, set your entry and stop-loss orders, TP order if you wish, sit back and let it happen. Plan out the chart changes that would cause you to get out manually if things were starting to go wrong but your stop hasn't been touched yet. Sometimes its long-term better to let something go...

I expect the US stock indices will resume their uptrends soon and that my buy order on the S&P index will trigger and that I will make money. I expect that if I am wrong about this, weak stock prices will fall further and more of my individual stock sell orders will trigger and that I will make...

In a sense it is buy-and-hold, yes. Its a rule of trend-following that you stay in until the trend starts to fail, so it can look like buy-and-hold or short-and-hold, but that's a superficial similarity only. An index can reflect what others are doing, which is a pointer towards staying on the...

Interesting idea, and possibly overdue, might help private retail traders. I wonder if there's a simpler way through this though? I note whether each pair with a major currency as base is either bullish or bearish using simple TA criteria. Right now, this tells me that AUD is bearish in all of...

I constantly fight the urge to close winning trades and exit strong trends which I am following. I don't always win that one.

I'm just hoping more of his art can go the same way. Also all that junk by Antony Gormley, Yves Klein and quite a few others.