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Data from the extremes of history allows traders to make more reliable conclusions concerning human behaviour using more recent more limited data. So I know that based on innumerable market incidents of behaviour through history that if I refer back to price data within the last 3 months only...

As a foreign observer of US politics, I hope you're right about the 1% probability of election. But as its Elizabeth Warren we're talking about, she could be useful to the US in foreign affairs. She could claim Danish ancestry and solve the whole Greenland issue that way. Or Korean, and make...

Happy to say this afternoon I was able to do both and go out and get some exercise. I am now drinkng beer.

Not really on the point. I already said, I think, that the humans involved in the decisions that making prices are not randomly chosen, they are selected from a selected and self-selecting group, and their objectives are not random, they are all the same - profit. So the behaviour of humans in a...

Buffett wasn't a trader. I never pay any attention to him when it comes to trading. The only point of playing the game is to win. Participation isn't mandatory.

No, only enough and only for long enough to make a profit. The game is to make money, not to know most.

I believe price data reflects the conscious wills of the market participants translated into action (purchases and sales). That's not to say the price data has a purpose which is intended.

Its good to be curious in life.

The only fact here is that its possible to construct an experiment that has random outcomes due to random inputs. That does not support the conclusion that all inputs are random in all groups, nor all outcomes.

But its says nothing about trading, it talks about people's reactions to success in trading. In addition to which, I had the idea that fund managers most of all in the world want to be about par with the majority of other fund managers. This is based on the premise that if one of them...

PS: Are you by any chance Nassim Nicholas Taleb? You come across well educated but also somewhat jaded as if obstructed in your life ambitions, and you very definitely write as didactically as he does - another reason why I have hated reading his (your?) work and would avoid reading any more of...

Interesting scenario that says quite a bit about market commentators but nothing about private retail trading.

I can't accept that long-term trends are random, either in their inception, termination or continuation, though the trend probably can be shown to start or maybe both start and end due to FA. But once a trend is established the next most likely outcome is that price continues the trend.

I'll go so far as to admit that the deeper traders drill into progressively smaller time-frames, the less reliable their conclusions based on past TA. No doubt at an infinitely short time-frame they are infinitely unreliable.

Agreed. And no doubt at some point the old chestnut is trading gambling will be resurrected.

Price movements are a reflection of human decisions to buy/to sell with profit as the objective. Reflection does not mean perfect but it does not mean meaningless either. Since the nature of the humans involved in buying/selling is selected and not random, and their objective remains constant...

Much depends on how correlated your positions are. If all 10 2% positions are breweries located in the US mid-west, that's just like one big 20% position on the mid-west brewing sector. But if you are long one US mid-west brewery, a tech stock, a pharma, a manufacturer, an oil producer, a...

I never any more take the word of the media on markets. They know no more than we do - they read what happened to the stock market last time oil prices soared/tumbled and they asked some old chums in a bank what happened last time oil prices soared/tumbled and they spew out the same recycled...

I learned about swing trading from books by Marc Rivalland and by Alan Farley. Rivalland was very specific about defining a swing high/low. See here for a summary - https://download.sharescope.co.uk/doc/Training_Zone/TZ_36.pdf Alan Farley has produced a wide range of strategies for swing...

Even if it could be proven beyond a reasonable doubt that European traders were better than US traders (or vice versa) we'd be no further forward unless we understood why. There are a few differences I have noted amongst US traders that surprised me (as an English trader) - US traders hate to...