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    Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

    I don't understand your question with reference to the zigzag diagram. Take another look. If it's not showing accumulation then it is distribution, 1 or 0. Price action tells you if you are in Acc or Dist - it's the ebb and flow of price (not noise) as it trends on the higher fractal. Jack...
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    Best Stochastic Settings For Day Trading

    Consider Stochastic (5,2,3) on 5 minute charts. In particular, look for steep crossovers of 50% on low volume as a leading indicator of imminent high volume breakouts. (If price action already has you in, then it is a nice confirmation to see.) To help stay with trends, consider the Stoch...
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    Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

    Perhaps indicators will be useful to your trading? Look up icebergs and rockets - there are some good rules re. MACD and stochastics which will keep you in the trend, when used intelligently with channels and volume.
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    Leaving on a jet plane (or, how smart are you again?) the reprise

    The only way to explain this is as follows: Imagine MarketSurfer on his roller-blades, kitted out in tight pink cycling shorts, gloves and a crash helmet. He's standing on the conveyor belt. In both hands he is holding a handle attached to a chain. The other end of the chain...
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    Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

    Well before a pilot takes off he has gone through his flight plan in detail, got the weather, logged his plan with control, checked out his aircraft, gone through the pre-flight checks - at this stage most of his attention is on the dials and gauges inside the cockpit. As soon as he has taken...
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    Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

    OK. Volume gaussians always make sense in hindsight - right? (If not, do some work here first on old charts.) So in real time the gaussians are messy - they are forming and often do not make sense until later - AHA. One big volume bar is often all it takes to complete the picture. But...
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    Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

    Not really... you've posted a chart that shows a P1 (circled) which apparently also fits your definition of a swing high. It might be more useful to post an annotated chart showing a SH or SL that is NOT also a P1 (or, more likely, a P1 that is not a SH or SL) and note the differences.
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    Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

    Where's the chart?
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    Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

    Frequency of event A being associated with event B sounds like probability to me. Post a chart about what you are on about and you may get a response - also you may find your own answer in doing so. It seems like you want to share something important. Also it seems like you are trying to...
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    Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

    Hi guys - interesting discussion - I'm glad these questions are being asked. Unencumbered as I am by seeing that price sequence unfold in real time, I am able to make the following comments with the benefit of hindsight. (How I would have acted in real-time is another question entirely.)...
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    exit strategy, when to sell

    Sell at, or very near to, the left trend line after you've seen peak volume...works for me. What have your percentages got to do with anything?
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    Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

    Yes! This is what I've tried to articulate several times - complementary channels with their respective FTTs giving you P1 and P3 (see attached real time annotated chart). Knowing how any market turns puts you in a calm place. Note also how 20SMA behaves - if it's not in your channel or...
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    Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

    I had similar questions, and I'm sure others do too. Clearly applying IF1/IF2 logic without any other contextual information is a nonsense - if it could be mechanistically applied in all market conditions then we would not need to consider anything other than consecutive price bars. (This...
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    What just happened to futures?

    Why didn't BAC offer guidance before today? Did they not want to or were they unable to?
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    how do you trade in market like this

    Try this: 5 min chart. Put in 1,2,3 channels. Put in volume. Match volume to the channels. Reverse on FTTs or if you miss them, strictly exit at the steeper right trend line to preserve profits, sideline and enter on the next FTT. Or try another index. :D
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    Averaging Down the real Holy Grail

    Many people can read. But very few people can read carefully. Of these, a small number will attempt to understand the intention of what you wrote and note well the conditions and caveats you introduced. Of these, an even smaller number will be able to leave aside their personal...
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    Morgan Stanley Traders Lost $390 Million in One Day in August

    Well said. It's hard to remember when you didn't know something because once you walk across the line and get it you can't imagine how anyone can still not get it. One way to conceptualise it rather than getting lost in conditional probability maths is to consider this: The host removes...
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    Morgan Stanley Traders Lost $390 Million in One Day in August

    a) yes you should play, player's side; but only if: 1. you have the bank-roll to ride a string of losers and the will power to stay with it until you make your expected $5 per roll profit. (You should check the binomial distribution to see the chances of having a string of losers at $55 a...
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    Food for thought: The Psychology of Waiting

    A certain outcome is not comparable to a chance outcome. It's irrelevant what the expectancy is as only one outcome will occur. (Assuming the outcomes are close e.g. 3.4 is close to 5). If it were 90% chance of 5M (or nothing) vs. 50% chance of 10M (or nothing) then you could make a...
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    Share buyback w/ debt question

    In theory it makes sense while it reduces the company's weighted average cost of capital. Beyond a certain point too much debt increases the WACC due to the increased risk to both shareholders and debt holders. Normally debt is cheaper than equity from the company point of view. Most...
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