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Their jobs and the very independence of the Fed are on the line. They may lose both unless they can get unemployment down and mortgage rates to 4 1/2 per cent. Unemployment is only going to go up in the months to come. Congress is already talking about looking at the Fed more closely...

It will look like a straight up move in Treasuries for at least 3 days in a row. It will also be all over the press. There is dissension within the Fed as to whether and when to do it but when it happens I believe they will announce it.

Treasury futures trade around the clock (with brief breaks). You should be able to see quotes on your broker's futures platform. Or, for example, http://www2.barchart.com/mktcom.asp

By the way I saw a Bloomberg interview the other day with Tony Crescenzi , Chief Bond Market Strategist at Miller Tabak. One of the interesting things he said was that he had a rule that had held true for many years "supply only matters in bear markets for Treasuries." He said that what...

If I sue a major brokerage firm now, will I in future years have a hard time opening accounts with other brokers? Does anyone know? (The forms always ask if you have had a dispute with a broker in the past and I would, of course, answer honestly). It is not a frivolous claim and will...

It's interesting that the 10 year German Bund future also turned down from a short term high around Jan. 15. http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GB%20H9-DT&o=&a=D&z=610x300&d=medium&b=bar&st= I guess that corporate debt markets must be improving a bit world-wide (at least...

If so, it is going to be great ride up from here. As to how long the Fed could bid long-term Treasuries up, I would estimate at least 2 years, probably longer. The Japanese bid up their long bond for about that long when they did quantitative easing - they took their long term interest rate...

Agreed. I'm betting that Geithner and his team really know that and that it is all pure talk for U.S. domestic political consumption (to pretend to cater to labor protectionist sentiment).

By the way Bloomberg is reporting that the sell-off is because the new Administration wants the Chinese currency revalued up and may take trade action against China. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aglY3XdKiWp0&refer=home

It seems to be that the recent pattern is for ZB to sell off big time in the days prior to major auctions, and then to rally strongly when the auction actually occurs.

It may fall a little further but the Fed is not going to let it fall too far because that would wreck plans to revive the mortgage market. A couple of Fed officials have given speeches this month referring to the possibility of the Fed's buying the long bond. Europe and Asia are still...

If it can't go down it just may go up. Hmmm, do you suppose that the support around 132'110-160 could be coming from the Fed (or parties acting at its behest)?

There are huge auctions of T Bonds taking place tomorrow and throughout this week. I imagine that dealers are "pre-selling" what they will buy in the auction. The picture should become clearer with the auction tomorrow. Personally I doubt that the Fed has given up on bringing down long...

According to http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=aAT4suWMAG_A&refer=bonds : "Fund managers surveyed by Ried, Thunberg & Co. were the most pessimistic on record about Treasuries, based on a survey of expectations for the end of June. The sentiment index dropped to 35 for...

Yes the Barrons story says "Get Out Now!." It is at http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123094029415750267.html?mod=9_0002_b_this_weeks_magazine_home_top It even has a video titled "Stay away from Treasury Bonds." It says: "A bearish stance toward Treasuries and a bullish one toward...

It is certainly possible that the main poster in this thread is right and that a mega up-move in stocks is about to take off. In this case presumably the "smart money" has just switched from long bonds to long stocks. To cover this possibility, I will certainly buy some stock index calls...

Very interesting analysis. But wouldn't that put mortgage rates at a level unacceptable to the Fed? They have said that they would like to see 4 1/2 per cent mortgage rates. I suppose that conceivably mortgage rates could be brought down via direct mortgage subsidy programs instead of...

Just be aware that you are betting against the Fed.

First of all congratulations on being on the right side of the big move today. However, personally I expect to see the move reversed next week and I bought some more on the close.

Thanks I do not know most of the answers. But, miracle of miracles, my open sell limit order (which I had now set to 16) finally was filled today at 16, which is sort of amazing since the high of the day was 16.05 and the low was 13.25. It was filled at time 15:05 so maybe dealers had...