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I thought 7/4/2007 was a holiday and all US markets closed. But the historical data on Yahoo Finance showed the following trading results for DIA on 7/4/2007: Jul 4, 2007 135.27 135.27 135.27 135.27 7,521,000 125.51 Is this right? Does this mean that all historical data of DIA would be a...

3300% in 2 years by short vega/gamma is extremely unlikely. The more likely scenario is long far OTM and got lucky.

Mostly agree, but it takes money (sometimes lots) to hedge against other Greeks.

First, there is an idea call trust, i.e., credit. Second, the Fed can create credit out of thin air. Just call this Federal Reserve Note the Bernanke Vapor (or Bernanke Gas). Third, the world is addicted to this Vapor and thinks it smells good. Wars have been fought over it; people work...

Recently I sold a large number of contracts with a limit price that was equal to the bid. I used IB TraderWorkstation and the order was placed through PSE (routed by SMART). To my surprise, I paid a HUGE penalty which, according to IB, was due to "my limit price being equal to the bid, and...

I have been trying to find convincing evidence that Chinese yuan is interest-free as you speak, and not a form of debt to enslave the Chinese people as the Dollars enclaves us Americans. Can you give me some pointers? Thanks.

Actually, volatility increases the downward drift of both inverse and leveraged ETFs. That being said, if the tendency of inverse and leveraged ETFs is downward, why not just buy puts on them? Guaranteed money, right?

Can you trust international bankers? Can you trust Goldman Sachs? Can you trust the Fed, the IRS, your elected politicians? Can you trust your mother in law?

Precisely: (A) In random JUMP of extreme volatility (NOT random WALK), (sambian system) = (buy and hold with stop loss) = (huge easy profit) (B) In real market without repetitive random JUMP (random walk), (sambian system) = (negative expectancy). QED

Guys, betting on a fair coin is not how the real market works. As I was trying to point out in my previous post, taking profit or loss on the outcome of each flip is bypassing a random walk. This is a critical flaw. What you need to do is this: set X=1; then flip a coin; if the outcome is...

The range from -a to +a is just an example. If you are concerned about 0 or negative numbers, just translate [-a, a] to [2a, 0]. Start your random walk at 1, set your profit target at 2 and stop loss at 0.5.

I also replied in another thread: The problem here is your random walk model. I think you are mixing continuous processes with discreet ones. In your model, each step of the random walk is 1. If each step is that big, everyone will make money. You flip a fair coin that has two discreet events...

The problem here is your random walk model. I think you are mixing continuous processes with discreet ones. In your model, each step of the random walk is 1. If each step is that big, everyone will make money. You flip a fair coin that has two discreet events and you get paid more than you lose...

I had put quotation marks around the words "time decay" because inverse and leveraged ETFs behave as if they have time decay, even though the decline in value through time is due to mechanisms other than the time decay we see in options. I will check out the web site you pointed out. Thank you.

I had thought about synthetic sticks, but in IRA, short calls are not permitted either.

Inverse or leverage ETFs have undesirable "time decay" and is not suitable to be held for long time in IRA. Any substitutes that have (-1) correlation to S&P without the "time decay?" Thanks.

I have read your article in its entirety. Your assertion that the odds are in your favor (2:1 with equal probability) seem unrealistic. Everybody can make tons of money when you flip a fair coin and you get paid twice as you lose. Besides, if you are so sure your investment is truly risk-free (p...

I want to get some comments on the following: http://sambian.wordpress.com/2010/02/07/29/ To me, it is the same as saying: "Buy and hold; the stock market always goes up in the long run."

Excuse me for being in a hurry. Let me get this straight: if I want to wire $10,000 to my family in another country, then I have to pay $3,000 to the IRS? Guess what, sovereign funds are buying less useless US notes, so we are forced to filled to gap. What about this form of wealth...

ALWA has the highest Sharpe among all option-trading systems.