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lol bix...I like the last line...I usually start talking this way aswell when confronted with people who "just got a hot tip from their stock broker" about the market.. imo the fed will only go 25 (wow I'm on a limb here eh?)...and will probably not change much in their little statement...

the indirect bidder participation rate for the 10yr auction was 9.8%...way off the average of about 35-40%...this means foreign institutions dramatically scaled back their purchases of 10yr notes (though yesterdays 5yr auction actually saw an increase in the indirect bidder participation rate so...

thought I'd post this PM response from sle regarding a question I had asked earlier about why ED was so active near the end of the session recently... with his permission here it is: "there is a number of reasons big shops (like the one i am at) act a lot at the close (both in ED and...

euribor seems to have very little interest in what ED does these days...and vice versa...with the ECB unwilling to give us any real insight into what the hell they are thinking, Euribor is left to twist in the wind created by the Bund...Trichet is becoming the European equivalent of John Snow...

short answer is no you can't tell if it is thier own book or customer base...long answer is that when I get taken out in one clip (my size varies but is usually between 300-800) when I'm offering in a 4000 lot, I don't care if it is one of their guys frontrunning or the actual order being...

cheers bloggs...but somehow I doubt I took it from you today...I think I took a large part of it from other outright traders looking for a pullback after nfp...lol!

but why always near the end of the session?

chinook--as previously stated earlier in this thread...on TT you can see the counterparty to your trades in the fill window...not terribly scientific but it give you a pretty good idea what is going on at what price...as for how leggin gets his data...it is for him to divulge or not...

leggin, could it be that they are hedging their flatteners?...and we have seen that trade start to unwind a bit... once again we had massive buying in the ED front months today...Jun05 rarely went offered all day....and every time Sep05 or Dec05 came off a bit, the buying into it was immense...

leggin, I use TT and on my Fill window I can identify who my counterparty is...I can't tell who is literally just bidding and offering...but sometimes I will up tick or downtick to find out who is there...not terribly scientific, but the big clips up and the big bids at the end of the trading...

finally some real selling...but again it was lead in large part by the long end...specifically the 30yr as talk of those flatteners are unwinding (apparently a big japanese bank)...but we did see some decent selling in the ED early on...but again it completely evaporated at the end of the...

true...can't deny any of it...I am a humble servant of the god of scalping and momentum...however, when longer trends present themselves, the day time frame within that trend provides excellent trade set ups...if the trend is down then the way to approach most days is from the short...

what kind of size are these guys doing in this market? the guys in my office who trade this market successfully do anywhere from 50 to 200 lots but don't approach that figure on a daily basis...sometimes over economic releases or perhaps Greenspan speeches but I find it hard to believe that...

as a further comment on my disbelief about ED recent strength in the face of weakness...this may explain a bit... "The latest J.P. Morgan dealer survey showed long positions widened to 10 percent from 6.0 percent last week, though that was still dwarfed by short positions at 40 percent. Fully...

these are all good points made by very smart individuals...and really what I should have said was that 'most' governors and fed watchers have used the 3-5% mark as an unofficial target...it is true that some believe that historical 'neutral' rates do not have the same relevance in our post 9/11...

exactly...and all the material I've read by Fed watchers is suggesting at least 4.5-5%...of course the big question is how quickly this rate will be reached...ED futures seem to be perpetually in disbelief that this may actually happen relatively quickly...either way we need more clear...

direction yes...well, maybe until we see more of the hard data at the end of this month and then waiting for nfp in Dec...US thanksgiving next week means today may be the last 'good' trading day of this month...

there may be a reason McTeer is a 'former' governor now...neutral as indicated by virtually every other 'current' governor is between 3-5% and more likely 4-5%...neutral almost by definition, and almost intuitively cannot be Zero real rates...it just doesn't compute... as for today's...

anyone else wondering where all this choppiness in the EuroDollar market is coming from...the noise has been defeaning this week and last? I know there has been serious curve flattening trades going on but this is crazy...