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  1. bone

    Swing Trading Futures Spreads

    Here's a pretty good reference on CME electronic exchange spreads - the way in which the exchange prices and internally matches (fills) them. https://www.cmegroup.com/confluence/display/EPICSANDBOX/Futures+Spreads
  2. bone

    Swing Trading Futures Spreads

    Here's a CBOT Five Year Treasury Note Future Daily price action from early August. You can see that the market rallied steadily, and then sold off rather sharply: Here is the synthetic ratio'ed Fives versus Tens spread. You can see that during the exact same time period this spread steadily...
  3. bone

    CBOT Treasury Exchange Spreads Primer

    There are some unique attributes to Globex exchange supported intercommodity spreads (different products, like Fives vs Tens or a Crude Oil Crack); specifically, the way in which these intercommodity spreads are quoted and filled. This is different beast than, let's say, an intracommodity...
  4. bone

    Is this seriously what trend traders do?

    In terms of my own trading accounts I switched from short term trading (holding seconds, minutes, hours) to longer term "position" trading (holding days, weeks, months) ten years ago. This is all a matter of balanced reasoning and perspective. You can't target 300 tics and bail every time a...
  5. bone

    Trend Question (examples)

    It's pleasant to throw nouveau descriptive terms like "fractal" around. Neural Networks was all the rage a decade or more ago. Has anyone used fractals to make money in markets ? Btw, I buy into machine learning in terms of exploiting markets. Fractals from a practical application...
  6. bone

    ES Has Topped

    One of my mentors was David Ellis - a legend in the S&P pit. One of the tenets he personally impressed upon me was market price behavior flying in the face of "conventional wisdom" and the espoused views of "expert commentators". The S&P 500 is currently a great example of what he was talking...
  7. bone

    How to hedge

    Agree with a firm GTC stop limit order for loss mitigation. In terms of hedging - if you allow a flat price outright position to go against you, and only then you decide to "hedge" the underwater stinker, it only makes matters much much worse. If you're trading outrights, take a clean outright...
  8. bone

    ES Has Topped

    So true, so true ! Spot on.
  9. bone

    Swing Trading Futures Spreads

    Such asinine nonsense explains the demise of "old Wall Street" - especially in the context of intra market Exchange futures spreads.
  10. bone

    Swing Trading Futures Spreads

    Hint: go interview with a Firm Principal at DRW or Ronin or Jump etc. etc. in Chicago and ask them if futures Spread trading is a "low reward" proposition.
  11. bone

    Swing Trading Futures Spreads

    Not sure what the "trap" is - good luck with the day trading fund btw.
  12. bone

    Swing Trading Futures Spreads

    I'm a big proponent of swing trading exchange supported futures spreads for some very good reasons - they are the cheapest margin available, and in the case of intra market combinations (same product different expiries) generally speaking they tend to behave and model better than the flat price...
  13. bone

    The S&P 500 will top next at

    Agree totally and completely. But contrarian timing the market with this breed of price action is piss poor risk/reward.
  14. bone

    The S&P 500 will top next at

    And you are truly Golden. Relentless higher highs and higher lows on the WEEKLY timeframe. Which is the timeframe to use when you're making macro calls.
  15. bone

    Trend Question (examples)

    If you truly want to get your arms around a legitimate long term trend - use WEEKLY data.
  16. bone

    The reason I dont use any indicators

    Well, to answer that I'll go back to the previous statement I made that I have found that many of the clients I have taken on simply were not using Technical Analysis correctly. In my case, we are literally looking at thousands of spread combinations which include every electronic futures...
  17. bone

    The reason I dont use any indicators

    Well, even if you don't use an "indicator" per se you'll need a trading system. A trading system can be as simple as a few rules. Occam's Razor is definitely in play here (more variables does not yield superior results necessarily). For example, one "non-indicator" based system might be: 1...
  18. bone

    The reason I dont use any indicators

    1. From my experience taking on new clients, I can tell you that the vast majority of even experienced traders that I have seen misuse and abuse technical analysis indicators. In many different ways. There's widespread TA abuse running rampant. 2. There is no monopoly on "correct" ways to...
  19. bone

    Goodbye Eurodollars (thanks Libor manipulators/cheaters) hello Broad Treasuries Repo Financing Rate

    I just can't picture LIBOR being replaced any time soon as a benchmark - everybody and everyone in the world uses it as a reference point for financing and credit. It's the juice that gets quoted on LIBOR that makes life spicy. I guess EONIA and REPO might be alternatives, who knows...
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