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I remember walking past the visitors gallery one day on my way to the turnstiles at the CBOT. I overheard one of the younger college types point down through the glass and tell all her dorm buddies that 'all those traders had MBA's'. I was laughing so hard I caught my trading jacket on the...

Not really - comagnum is right. It would signal a return to the time pre-QE when interest rate tightening signaled price and wage inflation and economic growth. Like.... Normal times.

It's the timing part that is such a bitch with this whole "calling a top" enterprise. Wouldn't it be better for him to wait for some decent selling to occur, and then tell the world that he expects the sell-off to be broad and deep ? Well, I guess he couldn't actually hurt his...

With all due respect, this post of yours combined with your proclaimed profit target illustrates your confusing mindset perfectly. Your Macro is in fact Micro.

What you think is "Macro" is in fact truly "MICRO". The fact that you squeal in delight over one very modest retracement day, and also set a profit target of 2331 for your supposed 240 short call position tells us that while you're willing to start up this huge proclamation thread boldly...

Not really. There are plenty of traders who are opportunists trading order flow and price action. There's a population of manual traders, swing traders and algos who will identify liquidity takers and race them. That's actually the central tenet of among others tape reading, Momentum and...

And I think this is a matter of your sensationalist thread title, semantics and time perspective. It's a disconnect between the sensational macro thread title against the OP's micro expectations in terms of trade profit targeting. That's my opinion, YMMV. In terms of the spread trade...

I can't think of a more painful, capital burning, unnecessary trading strategy than calling tops or bottoms to a market whose price action and momentum hasn't shown itself agreeable to one's personal inclinations and hubris.

Moment of clairvoyance on your part IMO. BTW, the balance of 2018 rocks so put that in there pronto. Hell, there's some 2019 expiries we actively trade.

If you're making this monster MACRO call, and starting a thread entitled "The S&P has topped" - I question the strength of your conviction if we're presently trading at 2395.96 and per your original post you consider yourself wrong at 2426 and right at 2331. If you're going to talk macro then...

Ya know, to "call a top" is a MACRO trading term - which means you short 2400, set your stop at 2800, and target 1500 like a proper big swinging dick.

Consider the publication, the source, the source's strained remote working relationship well before the Presidential election and of course the agenda. This is pure treacle, and Renaissance will be just fine. The HF and bank desk trading environment has become so condensed and rarified that...

If a 4/10 of 1% retracement confirms a top then yes your Aunt has a dick. If you bought every 2% retracement since 2009 you'd be golden. Put up a long term bar chart from 2008, draw a properly correct trend line, and then realize that taking out 2400 still does not reverse this trend by any...

No, the dumber the better. The thick headed dullard will pull up a weekly bar chart, draw a trend line, and buy dips. He will not think any further than that. The smarty pants will refuse to believe what he sees, will hyper analyze, rationalize, find market opinions from pundits who are like...

Whenever a market breaks into a new trading range, builds new volume there over TIME, and then improves the price valuation - that tells me that the market has accepted this new valuation. Since April of 2009, everyone who shorted long term R1 and R2 gagged on it; everyone who shorted a Fibbo...

Yep, that's the point. There seems to be an innate desire for immature traders to fight an obvious market trend.

Oh yeah, we've been killing with the CL Flys and Condors. Lots of quality entry signals - and guys aren't waiting too long with them either. I have one client who bought a CL Condor a few weeks ago, hit his profit target, and sold a CL Fly the next day - slightly different curve area. Bam bam.

Well, Mr. Magerman now has all kinds of time on his hands to pursue political activism without letting an employer get in the way. In the end, he got what he really wanted. Somehow - and I'm going out on a limb here, there are thousands of brilliant credentialed quants desperately waiting to...

Thousands of pundits have been calling for a top since mid-2009. Guess you might as well be the first. I've never understood the utility or reasoning to "CALL" market tops or bottoms beyond hubris. There's plenty of money to be made if you let the market tell you where it wants to go - and...

I can empathize. EIA reports in particular. Refineries running at 86% capacity, upper limit seasonal inventory levels of Crude and Gasoline and the spot won't come off. As you pointed out, if the news doesn't seem especially bullish but the market is taking out offers that price action itself...