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  1. bone

    Bitcoin Trader Made Millions Trading on Margin — And Then Lost It All

    I'm a bit skeptical but its a heartwarming story of the human condition. Saw the same type of story repeated tens of thousands of times during the dot com bubble of the late 90's. Everybody was a "trader". Then NASDAQ lost 78 % of its value and we all know how that movie ended.
  2. bone

    Chicago Futures Trader Charged with Causing $13 Million in Losses from Fraudulent Trading Scheme

    So he's going to jail and they will liquidate his assets: http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-commodities-trader-guilty-plea-fraud-20180123-story.html I also noticed that attorneys have kept Rock Capital incorporated because they are suing about a dozen Wall Street banks that took...
  3. bone

    Chicago Futures Trader Charged with Causing $13 Million in Losses from Fraudulent Trading Scheme

    Yeah, too bad the Risk Manager at Rock Capital couldn't manage to run an elementary options pricing model against the FCM daily statements (which the firm principal directly gets also - those weren't hidden by the trader). From the CFTC: "Lindstrom’s Scheme was Uncovered on January 27, 2015...
  4. bone

    Chicago Futures Trader Charged with Causing $13 Million in Losses from Fraudulent Trading Scheme

    I see this as an indictment of the CME/CBOT's shitty options on futures settlement and Marked to Market policy as much as malevolent gamesmanship on Lindstrom's part. Surely the CBOE has a better settlement policy for very small increment OTM options ? My educated guess is that Lindstrom was...
  5. bone

    Anyone here took Davey's course?

    The trading mentorship / education racket is dominated by bad actors and snakeoil salesman. Its lousy reputation is richly deserved. I can count on less than one hand the number of them I would trust - and Kevin is one of them. While I have not personally taken Kevin's classwork, I have met...
  6. bone

    the reason indicators don't work isn't because they're lagging

    There is not an indicator or algorithmic function or statistical study or any known means of prediction with certainty when it comes to financial markets. Noted exceptions being illegal activities and outright stealing - and then I'd argue that there is uncertainty as to the perpetrator's...
  7. bone

    Swing Trading Futures Spreads

    The sheer number of possible spread combinations is quite a challenge. Which is not necessarily a bad thing in this day and age.
  8. bone

    Swing Trading Futures Spreads

    R, speaking for myself I try to use the most current published CBOT ICS Ratios ( CME website link in a post above ). Unlike Eurodollars, keep in mind that these are fungible, physically delivered products, and that the Cheapest-to-Deliver (CTD) instrument can change from roll to roll ( this...
  9. bone

    Crude Oil Prediction 2018

    Highly correlated to the US Equity Market for sure. IMO that's a bigger fundamental driver than OPEC as long as North American supply remains so dominant. So much for 'peak oil'.
  10. bone

    Fighting the Market

    Yeah, please fuck off with the pit dinosaur analogy for this specific circumstance - this is a universal transcendent malady. FWIW, I have personally seen a trader lose $4.4M in one day “cannonballing” the market. On the screen. Totally electronic. In 2006. Interest rates. Russian. Shared...
  11. bone

    Fighting the Market

    Well, to your point, in terms of liquidity that's precisely what made the CBOT Bond market work in the 80's and 90's. In fact, the President of Cantor Fitzgerald famously said something to the effect that 'the CBOT Bond Market works because there's always some idiot who will take a thousand lot'.
  12. bone

    Fighting the Market

    I know that tourists and steady Members of this board like trading stories, so I thought I'd share one that might be of some benefit. Most stories are just funny or bizarre, but a few can be quite useful. I have noticed over the years that some traders are strongly predisposed to a personality...
  13. bone

    Swing Trading Futures Spreads

    I have noticed over the years that some traders are strongly predisposed to a personality trait that has them consistently fading any market. They want to fight the market. In the 1990's there was a very big, quite prominent 30 Year Treasury Bond independent local futures trader by the name of...
  14. bone

    Need Advice

    I have noticed over the years that some traders are strongly predisposed to a personality trait that has them consistently fading any market. They want to fight the market. In the 1990's there was a very big, quite prominent Bond local futures trader by the name of Chip Kenyon. He gave a...
  15. bone

    Swing Trading Futures Spreads

    I was personally short ZN versus ZB but reached my target second week in November. Personally, I think they have four 2018 rate hikes already baked into the cake, and I am sitting on my hands as far as the US long term Treasuries are concerned and only have on a few STIR spreads at the moment...
  16. bone

    Looking for US prop shops - Training / no capital - similar to Trillium/Kershner

    Yeah, one of their guys on the crypto desk just hung it up - retired to the South of France. True fact.
  17. bone

    Looking for US prop shops - Training / no capital - similar to Trillium/Kershner

    DRW is looking for crypto traders. Most think they have most advanced and quite frankly the best crypto desk in the business.
  18. bone

    New !! CME Fed Funds-Eurodollars Exchange Spread

    Marty, invent a contemporary cash settled proxy futures contract then file a patent. Sell patent to a regulated futures exchange. Use proceeds to live like Hunter S. Thompson.
  19. bone

    Swing Trading Futures Spreads

    I hear ‘ya. Most of the time I just use the product margin tabs on the CME website. Even if it’s not your precise combination, you can get a very close approximation...
  20. bone

    Barron's: "Net Neutrality could hurt day traders"

    It’s possible that in his particular unfortunate case “net neutrality” really is of little consequence if there isn’t any decent ECN infrastructure to speak of there to begin with. From what I can tell in the early 20th Century Manila was a crown jewel. I think the Japanese occupation during...
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