Search results

I have no personal respect for Trump but this option would be preferable for the US economy and make things simple for trading. My ideal draft plan calls for Monday and Tuesday to be inside bar days on the Dow. I then go long on the Dow derivative (spreadbetting) at Wednesday's close as long as...

I was forced to reject your evidence as it didn't prove your point. It simply showed that prices oscillate and so does price volatility. There hasn't been a period in trading history when these things were not true. In any case you sidestepped - the case for the systems-stop-working supporters...

Exactly. This covid conspiracy nonsense is the sort of stuff to be expected from the US these days. Ever since the JFK assassination all we hear from the loudest US commentators is that some evil power cabal behind the US government is behind everything bad in the world. The loss of belief in...

Ok, so you've got the evidence. That said, you've registered with a discussion forum and entered into a debate on this subject but now you won't put up the evidence that informs your opinion. Its slightly difficult to resolve your position.

Yet so many commentators say this or that system worked until it didn't work and the reason for that is that the market changed. Of course they can't show on a chart how it changed or when. I say they were either lucky enough to have a good run using a poor system and were too dumb to know it...

My point is that there are no invisible changes going on in markets that eliminate the profitability of consistent trading systems.

The chart very well illustrates the effect of the covid pandemic on ATR. Clearly, prices will become suddenly more volatile during times of global crisis. But we have had such a crisis every few years since history began. Actually, many systems should work better under conditions of increased...

Equally possible that the system was simply experiencing a random period of good results. You can't show any evidence to prove your point.

I can't show you a system that stopped working because the markets changed because I say this does not happen. I'm not clear what point you're making.

Not sure what point you're making. Markets trend up and they trend down, and they range. volatility goes up and down. That's what they've always done.

Then show how and where and when on some chart. Never mind the why. My contention is this cannot be done convincingly because its a fallacy. Markets have not changed, they go up and down and trend and range just as ever. I say that systems stop working because of statistical inevitability, the...

Naturally, stock indices are set up so their points values inflate over time, so this is a skewed way to gauge anything. 1000 points on an index is not what it was 20 years ago. Yet the percentage changes are nothing special until we got into the covid pandemic.

If the market changed, it would be visible in differences in the charts. Can you put up a chart perhaps showing a time when the markets changed?

Some systems fail because they were just inconsistent. Even an inconsistent system could have long periods of profitability. But of all the times when we've been told this or that system failed because the markets have changed, has anyone been able to put up a chart showing how and when these...

At least UK lockdown releases government funds to support businesses and employees. But it still just delays the inevitable.

There might be some exit strategies from this pandemic but none sound really good, probable or even practicable - 1. an injectable vaccine / cure (we just pop to the pharmacy and buy a magic pill? - really?) 2. covid patients benefit from some home-based non-invasive therapy (we might need to...

I'm assuming in an example such as the Dow for instance, if it closes lower than the low target indicator line, pushing it lower, you would be going short. If so, where would you place your stop / what chart formation would you need to see in order to exit (for a loss)?

Oh I dunno - no data available re consistency but I'd have thought that unprofitable traders would very quickly exclude themselves from trading - if you're not making a profit you're losing money and there's a natural limit to how long that can go on. Meanwhile the profitable traders keep...

I guess some attract more day-traders than others, but they're all trading accounts through e.g. CFD's and spreadbetting. Check out any home page.

The customer data released under regulations in the UK and the EU indicate that about 20-25% of active private retail traders have profitable accounts at any one time. So the odds are perhaps not as bad as some people make out.