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    Sugar futures

    If the fundamental reason sugar is rising because of emerging markets getting wealthier then rice should also be rising since in North Africa, Middle East & Pakistan & India they all use a lot of both daily. Most of my Mom's family (north Indian) would drink 4-5 cups of chai by 8 AM in the...
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    My Q&D analysis of PARA (Paramount Movie & Streaming Company etc.)

    Yeah expansion into non-US markets would work for them. It is culturally tricky though. I think European expansion should work but Asia & Middle East & Africa have different cultures. I can tell you since I am originally from north India, Amazon & Netflix push into India and their original...
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    Carl Icahn is the new Madoff?

    Yeah that's my memory of it -- its been a while since I read The Predator's Ball probably mid 1990s. I think it was 1984 or 1985 where Milken was on the cover of Business Week where the cover article was about how Milken made $750 million. I think the CEO Fred Joseph made like $50 million. The...
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    Short Sellers Reaped Nearly $400M in a Day From the Bank Stock Rout

    All of what you said is correct. The problem I have is in the good times these people are capitalists and in the bad times they want price discovery to disappear just like in September 2008. If all it takes is a few short sellers to destroy your business it should not be publicly traded.
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    Carl Icahn is the new Madoff?

    Yeah that was Oliver Stone. The movie is largely based on Icahn if I remember correctly, except for the "Greed is Good" speech which is based on Ivan Boesky's commencement speech for UC Berkeley Business School grads in 1985. Milken & Boesky got most of the headlines so that is why most thought...
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    My Q&D analysis of PARA (Paramount Movie & Streaming Company etc.)

    The problem with Paramount stock now is that isn't a growth company and since they slashed the dividend so severely value investors have no reason to own it either. Who is the marginal buyer? It can't be taken over without the consent of the Redstone family holders. You basically have to wait...
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    Short Sellers Reaped Nearly $400M in a Day From the Bank Stock Rout

    Unlike the meme stocks of 2020, the KRE members are doomed since this crisis in confidence can only be ebbed by politicians extending FDIC insurance limits. That is very unlikely given the state of politics in the US. The most shocking collapse has to be PacWest. One day they claim in the post...
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    What comes around ... goes around.

    That is ironic since it was Icahn that ultimately destroyed TWA with his terrible CEO skills.
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    Carl Icahn is the new Madoff?

    Since Icahn mainly invests in hard asset companies it makes sense that IEP would mirror Copper prices. In the 1970s he made a lot of money buying up shares of public & private REITs that were severely under priced usually via Greenmail where the board would buy his shares above the current stock...
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    SMCI

    I started buying in low $60s back in October. It was purely a value play for me as well as hitting all time high. I couldn't believe a stock that was going to earn $12/share was trading at $62. A forward 5 P/E stock? Historically their P/E rarely goes past 10 so it is probably capped for now but...
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    UCO and other Oil long plays

    The Oil permabulls on CNBC have been a disaster. Oil will go lower just like the stocks. BP earnings report was a disaster. XLE & USO is a short for sure.
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    Which Bank is next?

    Every bank in the KRE is in danger of being shorted to oblivion. Unless Yellen & Powell get their act together the Regionals are doomed. Yellen should be getting FDIC to remove the $250K deposit insurance limit. Powell should start lowering rates otherwise the loan book of the renionals will...
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    Which bank stocks are you buying?

    Schwab is just another west coast regional bank with brokerage business on the side. That's why it goes down every day. I'm sure it is full of 2.5% 30 year jumbos just like First Republic, PacWest, etc. At a 6.5% rate the 2.5% loans are worth 60% less.
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    RRC was a great long at 26.10.

    Another gap higher and collapse. I've lost faith in these resource & energy stocks. They seem to just go lower no matter ho much money they make.
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    Lurking a bit on Twitter lately and it seems like everyone's getting it wrong.

    That Darvas story sounds right from what I remember. The amazing thing about Darvas was he made most of his money from the days when he was a Ballet dancer and trading based on weekly Barrons prices he got while he was mainly a dancer in Asia.
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    My Q&D analysis of PARA (Paramount Movie & Streaming Company etc.)

    There hasn't been a good Star Trek series since Deep Space 9. STTNG was okay but too many moody episodes with the Captain. These shows are all mediocre since they are not interested in stories about the big picture that Roddenberry created. Nothing beats the original series for story line &...
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    Google Brain + DeepMind = AI Brain Fog

    Shades of Xerox and their Palo Alto Research Center which created most of the 1990s tech (in the mid 1970s) but the leaders of Xerox decided it was not in their interest to pursue. History repeats again. Xerox PARC had the eventual founders of Adobe, 3Com and the original Object Oriented...
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    European options are illiquid as fuck

    Even the US ETFs that cover European regions are illiquid like FEZ, EWG, EWQ, etc. FEZ has huge open interest but very little trading and like 10-20% spreads.
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    My Q&D analysis of PARA (Paramount Movie & Streaming Company etc.)

    Its tough to beat Netflix because of their Moneyball approach to content -- that is their high return to cost approach like Billy Beane did for the Oakland A's primarily in the 1990s. The traditional content producers have a huge legacy of content but making a ton of new content like Netflix...
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    Electronica, ShoeGaze, Dream Pop, Indie, Deep House etc.

    Massive Attack was very influential in the post-Rave era of Electronica (between Rave & Trance). They did the theme song of the US TV show House in the early 2000s. They also had great success at the tail of the Rave era with their huge dance song Unfinished Sympathy (1991) especially the Paul...
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