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  1. bone

    SpreadProfessor Clients - Thanks !

    Recorded Client Webinars went out today. Newer clients who have started paper trading are finding good opportunities. Strong start to the New Year.
  2. bone

    Nuclear Plant Accident in New York

    The tritium groundwater levels recently reported by Indian Point plant operations to the NRC and the State - while elevated, are still well under the EPA drinking water standard. Tritium is a radionuclide of the hydrogen atom and has a biological half-life of 10 days. Tritium is abundant in...
  3. bone

    Ex-drug executive Shkreli has $40 million trading loss: U.S

    Do bail bondsmen make margin calls ? Oh, the sweet irony.
  4. bone

    SpreadProfessor Clients - Thanks !

    I meant no disrespect to that client, and he certainly gets that. My point being that anyone who has either interviewed with me about becoming a client, or has been a client, knows full well how much I stress the direct positive correlation between a long term period of sustained commitment...
  5. bone

    SpreadProfessor Clients - Thanks !

    Webinar on intermarket correlation studies re: stock indices and precious metals due out later this week. Also chock full of words of wisdom which clients appear to appreciate.
  6. bone

    SpreadProfessor Clients - Thanks !

    During a webinar today, a newer client with two months of excellent paper trading metrics broached the topic of wanting to go live with his cocksure success. I laughed my ass off and he was left a bit speechless by my response. Words of wisdom ensued.
  7. bone

    CAD/CL Spread

    CAD is about 10 percentage points higher correlation to CL than PL. Actually, Zinc and Lead have significantly higher correlations to CL than PL at present on-the-run.
  8. bone

    CAD/CL Spread

    Expect some cointegration risk, and expect your clearing firm to margin both sides of that trade as outright flat price risk. Just sayin'.
  9. bone

    stop loss determination

    This is just me, so YMMV. I want my clients to set their stop-loss and their profit target at the time of trade entry. These are not arbitrary levels - there is a specific trading range based rules set for it that is a very important part of the trading system. In fact, sometimes we will pass...
  10. bone

    SpreadProfessor Clients - Thanks !

    I had a good conversation today with a client about taking a longer term viewpoint with respect to his performance metrics. He started out with 4 winners in a row, and after a few trades stopped out his W/L metric is currently about 65%. Which is much more what I would expect. It's easy to...
  11. bone

    Cost of carry in CL

    Everything intramarket. I encourage / insist / nag / bludgeon my clients to not specialize in a singular name or market per se. I want them to swing trade just about anything liquid and electronic.
  12. bone

    Cost of carry in CL

    Last few years have been very good from clients who have provided feedback. Most clients are good about providing feedback, but some are tight-lipped and that is entirely their prerogative. Being selective and playing in parts of the curve where there is more commercial OI than spec involvement...
  13. bone

    Cost of carry in CL

    Well, even if all the or a majority of the "knowns" are known, a perfectly reasonable basis differential can get blown to shit - even in softs and grains. I submit for your consideration Louis Dreyfus and the 2011 Cotton Market. Took futures contracts into delivery at a price point incredibly...
  14. bone

    Prudent Risk Management Is The Only True Edge In TRADING

    Just from what I have personally seen from new clients and trading house acquaintances over the years - position management is one of those trading axioms that gets platitudes and lip service, but is rarely deployed in a systematic and uniform practice by individual traders. Just sayin...
  15. bone

    Narcissism

    Well, let's drill down a bit on this. IMHO, if a psyche requires affirmation that he's right and the market is wrong - that's not a good place to be in the sense that the person will likely not believe what the market is telling him in terms of accepted valuation. Likewise, if a personality...
  16. bone

    SpreadProfessor Clients - Thanks !

    I will be distributing a client webinar later today about the considerations that must be addressed when taking a winter grain or soft trade when the contract spec physical deliverable is out of season.
  17. bone

    Recommend an Energy analyst/newsletter worth following

    Great post - to put it another way, contango reflects stranded over-supply in the immediate here-and-now.
  18. bone

    Recommend an Energy analyst/newsletter worth following

    The Schork Report has a good following. YMMV.
  19. bone

    SpreadProfessor Clients - Thanks !

    Recorded Client webinars went out today.
  20. bone

    Oil Rig Count and Predicting a Rebound

    They've already done that and it hasn't seemed to help. There is no longer a "flight to quality" aspect to oil any more. This is all about a huge long-term supply dynamic imbalance.
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