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Gasoline demand in September fell by almost 4%, the most in over a decade. http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BAF0370F0-402E-4CDF-A623-544CFEE40C8B%7D&siteid=google And this is with pathetic refinery capacity utilization. Conserving energy during the winter is even easier...

Well, I am short the oil several months already. I still think at the end of the year oil will be low 40s, high 30s. On the side note, last month I was in Rome. Man, everybody is driving scooters, plus the subway trains and busses are packed! No wonder they spend several times less gasoline...

10% historical return of the stock market is not tax/inflation adjusted. Assuming you are taxed 15-20% and transaction costs are ~.5% and the inflation is 3-4% you get real return of 5% at best. In about 28 years you’ll manage to have 4 times in real terms. Not too sexy for a life time...

The first 100 years are the hardest because within that period you die.:D On a more serious note, getting 8% real return is admirable. The GDP of US has been growing 3-4% at the last 100 years, and I suspect the rate was similar in the past. Note that investing in an index is trading since the...

US oil demand fell in July by the greatest amount in 3 1/2 years: http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/article_display.cfm?Section=ONART&C=GenIn&ARTICLE_ID=234882&p=7

Well it all depends how you calculate return. Normally you use return on equity so this is what you use. The risk free return is the one based on the equity not capital. Otherwise you would have 0 or negative Sharpe, even though you had 100%+ return.

Yep. In less than a decade we went from one extreme to another.

Well I don’t know about that. At 2.5$ gas if you have to buy new car are you going to buy some hybrid or a powerful SUV? People will switch to more efficient cars just like they did in the past when oil was high. They will invest in better thermal house insulation, more efficient...

If oil remain elevated add to the list stock bubble... For most of the year stock market and oil was highly correlated. Now this relationship seems disconnected. Oil is up almost 100% from last year and this is not “Goldilocks economy” as the talking heads would like you to believe. One...

Last week oil was up on a bearish report. Now is trading down on bullish report. However, this is the first time that I remember for the later to occur. For some time oil is not trading on the fundamentals. This is the time of mania, and anything is possible…

Well maybe, but for someone living in California this corresponds to gross 140~150 K$. Adjusted for purchasing power this is probably equivalent to 500 K in some countries. Furthermore, as I understand you pay taxes after those 80K regular, so you would paid same amount of taxes for having an...

I know that US expatriate do not pay US taxes on the first 80k $. If you live in a low cost country this is more than enough. The question is if this apply to capital gain or just earned income?

This poll could be modified by voting for the following creatures: SpongeBob Squidward Krusty Krab Plankton I suspect most of the people here wants to be Krusty Krab so they can be SpongeBob :)

Hello, It all depends what you consider efficient. If everybody utility value was just pure monetary gain than the expected gain from option is zero. You are right of course you don’t have good indicator where the bulk of the hedging is. It all depends how you are using options. For example...

This may not be the case. Even under assumption future volatility is known (which it isn’t) and the assumptions the option pricing model is using are correct (distribution, etc) it may be still plenty of cases where option does not have its fair value. The reason is that not everybody...

Daniel Yergin writes that there will be a large, unprecedented buildup of oil supply during the next few years as capacity rises 20%. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/29/AR2005072901672.html

Apologies if somebody allready posted this link. http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?type=ousiv&storyID=2005-07-13T114159Z_01_L13277489_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESSPRO-ENERGY-IEA-DEMAND-DC.XML

Perhaps my English is weak as I still don’t understand. Is 34% net or gross return? If is net, then his gross is 5+ 34/0.56 =60%. If is gross investors are pocketing 34*.56 – 5 = 14%.

The owner of Virgin Atlantic said on one ocassion “ It is easy to become a milioner – all you need is to start as a bilionere and start an airline company

OK, surely there is some scenario where HT does better?