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Don't even bother. That was not the point of this thread. I'm asking 'is the return in gov bonds, negative?'. You said you don't disagree but decided to nitpick something else instead of coming out and saying that was likely to be correct (which is typical). If anyone else got any facts relating...

What I was saying is so obvious it shouldn't be controversial at all. It was a different way to say that stocks (and real estate) are a better inflation hedges. According to Rogoff, most of the time governments prefer inflation when dealing with excess domestic debt, except sometimes they prefer...

The problem with that example is that inflation didn't even cross the 20% level (Rogoff level for an inflation crisis) and goverment bonds didn't default. You just proved that bank heavy equity indexes are a bad place to be during a banking crisis

Heck, if 1/3 of the 'good' countries have negative returns, then its worse than russian roulette. At least in terms of odds

These are recent crises. a huge real loss is a lot more difficult to recover from in bonds than in stocks (therefore, it should not have happened in the first place, not in the bond market). check back in 10 years and you will see who did better in those countries. in stocks you get compensated...

I assumed, like any resonable person, that you would present data if you had. But instead, you did what you always do, you assume the other person has some kind of major bias and you are the only one that's resonable. then you run away from debate like you are doing right now. that has happened...

Look at the title of this thread, its ALL about the long-term returns. not 3 year periods, with mumbo jumbo statistical nonsense. I have presented my data. A selection of extremely biased to the upside data (mostly developed market and 'safe havens', lacking emerging markets in it) shows...

Taleb's variation of Lindy's law says that whatever is fragile, will go bust. The life expectancy of non-perishable things is proportional to their current age https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect Does that apply to country stability? Markets seem to think so, right now the US government...

You are not going to be 'just fine' holding stocks, but looking at tail events such as Germany, Zimbabwe, Turkey, Brazil, Italy, Japan, and others, people were relatively much better off in stocks than in bonds. Big stock drawdowns occured but you made your money back at least (without having to...

I'm not necessarily saying investors should avoid bonds, I'm just saying that looking at the data, the risks of large virtually permanent losses are significant. That can be solved through solutions like: 1) A stop loss/exit strategy that avoids a bond market once a specific criteria is met...

Well, here is a rudimentary test: This is from the book Triumph of the Optimists 1900-2000 The average return is 0.71%. So it appears that bonds have a positive return right? Except this is all the data that is avaliable (at least to those researchers). There are a huge amount of countries...

There is a minimum bet size (you cant buy bonds with cents or low amounts), once you lose a certain amount, you are out of the game and the backtesting ends. Effectively, that's an 100% loss given that whatever is left over will be eroded by inflation With bonds if everything goes well, you...

That's the point, once you aggregate all the data, returns are either negative or close to 0%. Its only when you pick and choose specific periods or specific countries that one is able to get comfortable with bonds

hyperinflation. are you really going to nitpick that last 0.1% or 0.5% or whatever

My 2300-2400 SPX target range is not looking so crazy anymore. 2400-2500 is an area where things will start to get pricey, but only if stocks go there without policy being announced or if its announced but nobody knows if it will pass

If you aggregate the bond returns all of countries and 'invest' in that return series, almost certaintly your backtest will stop at some point because you will lose 100%. Even if somehow you don't, you will be hit with several 90-99% real return drawdowns (with no offsetting big gains like...

All brokers I have dealt with charge pro fees for corporations, even if the corporation is run by a homesless person just looking to earn income for food.

Trump impeachment is trending on twitter, of course, that's all nonsense. But if down the line (years in the future), something like that were become a real possibility, I can't help but to think that would be even more bullish for markets. Pence would take over and effectively you would get the...

Something I didn't know, Dalio's All Weather strategy uses 2-1 leverage. I thought it was more around 1.25-1.5 to 1 "Second, All Weather doesn’t use very much leverage; the strategy is around 2 times leveraged, which is less than the amount of leverage an average large company in the S&P 500...

I suppose I didn't fully describe his view correctly. He acknowledges that private equity (plus real estate and other illiquids) can be a good source of alpha. He just thinks at this point in the cycle is hard to get much alpha but you do get all the liquidity risk...