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I'm referring here to scenario where someone has 20% of money in bonds and that person wants to free some of that cash to trade other things. One solution is to buy a little bit huge duration bonds (and the amount is set by the duration ratio) and use the free cash to do other things. The other...

It might be more than just savings. Correct me if I'm wrong but one advantage of these bonds is that they protect the buyer against a rise in short-term rates, at least relative to using futures. The futures buyer is short the repo rate (and has to pay commissions, bid ask spreads and waste his...

Yes but the fact that they will issue it leads to the chance that the pricing would enable such scheme, if not now, perhaps at some point in the future. I'm not sure how is the global supply and demand for duration (CNBC said something about huge duration bonds in the UK yielding less than the...

I'm estimating, the exact % can't be known now and its not the focus of my post

Mnuchin is starting to sound more serious about the possibility of huge duration bonds. I can see this being a very interesting way to decrease capital demands for people that need to hold a certain amount of bonds/duration Lets say I estimate I need to have 20% of my portfolio allocated to the...

Swapped my FMCC position for more FNMAS (preferred). I think this will be better

Mnuchin said to Becky Quick that they are considering a 50y or 100y UST bond. That bond will be either the greatest thing ever or it will be the worst thing ever. I love the idea of capital efficiency of such huge duration bond. So if someone has 30% of their assets in 10y bonds, they can own...

Short Apr ZQ (fed futures) 99.285 The Fed might want to hike now instead of later because of the issue of no press conference (and econ projections) in the meeting after march (since it alternates). inflation is so high, they might want to take some insurance. and I'm getting odds for this bet...

Keywords: Real long-term bonds returns, historical bonds, bond losses

Sold my BR USD bond exposure and I'm swaping for 50% EM stocks and 50% short-term US T-Bills or USD cash (still deciding)

It looks like he lost 5% in 2008 and made 50% since then, how have you done?

You guys are full of it, here is the proof But of course, this being ET, the idiots will keep arguing the earth is flat till the cows come home. When presented with evidence against it, they will just use some creativity to come up with some BS crap to avoid admitting defeat. So go ahead, use...

No its from the Tony Robbins book that you said its the best ever. So apparently you didnt read the book

What about Paul Tudor Jones? He says never own anything that is bellow the 200MA. That's because he believes that price conveys useful information to make trading decisions, which is pretty much what 'price action traders' do

Inflation indexed bonds in inflationary countries can also be problematic In Brazil in the 60's they created an "ORTN bond". ORTN was supposed to be a price index that was going to adjust the bond for the loss of purchasing power. The problem was that this ORTN was consistently bellow one of...

These bond markets weren't necessarly like a developed market bonds markets where the government raises cash every month by selling bonds. Homer and Sylla talk about specific bond issues that are taken an snapshot over the lifetime of their existance. So, it appears that these governments...

Sidney Homer and Richard Silla in their great book 'A History of Interest Rates' have data on old Brazilian government bonds that existed in the last century. I collected that yield data and put it over the inflation data that I have to see how investors might have fared The book does not say...

Interesting facts from Taleb: " Take for example the binomial distribution with B[N, p] probability of success (avoidance of failure), with N=50. When p moves from 96% to 99% the probability quadruples. So small imprecision around the probability of success (error in its computation...

IIRC Greenspan said (in his 07 book) that a stock market shutdown was considered during the 87 crash. There was also the 9/11 ~week long shutdown. One would imagine that if the terrorist attack were worse, the shutdown probably would have lasted longer. I'm not sure if the NYSE adapted to...

Its a significant risk. Here are a list of additional 'breaks' (usually due to halts) This paper shows that markets tend to antecipate those closures to SOME extent https://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~charvey/Teaching/IntesaBci_2001/GJ_Global.pdf But still, its a significant risk but the truth...