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I'm drawing from my 2009 experience. In that year, what rose the most was the crap that nobody wanted to own (banks and REITs). Same thing is happening now in Brazil. That macro research firm that I mentioned is great in their research but they are getting hurt a little because they are so...

Yes the economy sucks. GDP is down ~7% from the peak and per capita GDP is down ~9% from the peak. Its the worst recession on record. But as I mentioned, I think of stocks as a forward looking investment with exponetial payoffs. I'm told by a macro research firm that Brazil corporate profits...

I was thinking about one thing the other day Becky Quick told Buffett that she invests all her retirement money in the S&P500. In a lot of ways, this is genius but not for the reason she thinks. Thing is, CNBC is naturally hedged against a bear market as financial media tends to boom during...

Keywords: Average, median monthly return stocks

The nice thing about these investments is that they are so naturally leveraged. I invested 1% of capital on SNAP, my risk was around ~0.15% of capital. Had it worked, it might have produced a 1-2% return. That's almost enterely an 'extra return' because it requires so little capital. I'm still...

I'm not saying one should buy every IPO or every stock that is said to have huge potential but I do think that taking those risks (with a Tudor Jones risk management plan with it) in certain situations make a lot of sense. Right now I think those are good shots to take because people are getting...

As a matter of fact, my brother (who knows nothing about finance and stocks) thought the FB IPO was a buy. Of course, when it tanked I thought (like a typical Wall Street asshole would) "contrarian signal, I should have shorted". Yet here we are with the stock at $137 from the IPO price of $38...

Same thing with riding this US equity bull market. I believe it will continue and might become a bubble. Right now its Tony Robbins switching from 'sell stocks' in 2010 to asking people to be 'Unshakable' in equities in 2017. When the avg person and mainstream media start to do that, its time to...

There is an certain genius to this type of advice, even though it looks stupid. In some level she knows that the payoff could be gigantic but the risk is limited. Most people don't apply that intution properly, they oversize the investments and they don't control for risk (with stops and exit...

Exited SNAP pre-market at 22.40. Lost 4 bucks a share but had this worked I would have made 25-35 bucks a share, maybe more if the person can notice that the upside of the stock is increasing as it goes along. That's a bet I will take everytime. Bears will celebrate and then scratch their heads...

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/395208/ken-fisher%3A-why-cape-useless Why CAPE is useless "CAPE's flaws are manifold. Averaging 10 years of earnings might make it smoother, but it also makes CAPE extra backward-looking. Today's CAPE still includes earnings from 2008-2009's recession. How are...

I noticed the carry on the EUR futures is much better than on Oanda so I switched over my short to there. I'm seeing a 1% positive carry per year on short EURUSD futures. That seems quite generous. So I'm going to keep a small long-term short there just as a reminder to keep following the...

http://fortune.com/2016/04/29/warren-buffett-foreign-trade/ Buffett talking about the dangers of the Trade deficit back in 2003. He suggested a tarrif system to get rid of it "This plan would not be copied by nations that are net exporters, because their ICs would be valueless. Would major...

One thing that could drive the confidence for a US equity market bubble is the fact the the US has shown a lot of resiliency during the 2008/2009 crisis and people will remember that. I recall a Tony Robbins video from 2010 warning people about stocks and telling them to sell part of their...

the 'present' is not updated but it goes to show that it isn't crazy to think econ expansions can just keep going

http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=32350 Sumner raises the possibility of only 1 recession happening in the next 30 years in the US. If this were to happen, it raises the possibility of a US equity market bubble becoming a reality The 2 times Buffett came out to warn people about the stock...

The value of deferral http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/08/how-warren-buffett-used-deferred-taxes-to-make-twice-as-much-money/ "Imagine that Berkshire had only $1, which we put in a security that doubled by yearend and was then sold. Imagine further that we used the after-tax proceeds to repeat...

For people in the US looking for income ideas. Certain WFC and BAC preferreds (WFC-L and $BAC-L) look interesting http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2017/03/a-value-opportunity-in-preferred-stocks/ I wish I could buy these to park some cash but I get hit with a 30% withholding tax. I'm...

As a matter of fact, Shilling's own data show the inflationary power of a fiat regime. During wartime (when countries usually went off gold and adopted a fiat regime) inflation was almost 6% a year. Right now, there is a fiat but no war (so no big fiscal demands by the government). 6% is too...

Its an interesting point he makes on inflation during peacetime vs wartime but at the same time, my backtests and data from the US/UK show that the move from the gold standard to a fiat standard changed the game big time. It sticks out how much gold became valuable as a portfolio diversifier...