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To summarize (and agree), the max loss and gain are as relevant or more relevant then the percentage of accurate predictions. If you have a bet where you stand to gain 1 or lose 100, being able to predict with 95% accuracy is obviously worthless. Witness anyone who sells naked options, does a...

The human brain has a thing where it gets really hung up on spectacular but spectacularly unlikely events. A good example of this is the almost universal uneasiness when flying and not when driving, despite the fact that no-one died in a commercial airline crash in the U.S. in 2017, for example...

It does come down to the agreement and if he was trading in a way that was opposed to the disclosure you're right, there is a potential consumer protection violation. I would point out that it's a different thing to say you'll trade only covered puts, for example, and then sell naked puts then...

While he certainly may have broken one or more criminal laws it's not obvious that he has. Big boys and girls hired him to manage their investment, if they didn't realize they could lose some or all of it then it's difficult to summon any sympathy for them. If a financial adviser's portfolio is...

I don't know, it's so convenient after the 6 glasses of wine to be able to just do your business immediately upon waking up, at least the people you would otherwise have to crawl over might appreciate it! I'll open up a rabbit hole for anyone who might want to investigate, there's a board...

If you aren't already aware of it, IB will auto liquidate those positions even if they aren't ITM, starting in my experience the day before the expiration, using the assumption that you have to have the full amount required to buy/sell the underlying ES contracts in your account. The...

If you subscribe to the "any publicity is good publicity" school of thought I feel like you could go a long way starting a Case-Shiller type company that publishes indexes on things like regional prostitution prices and weed prices in places where such things are legal. I'm thinking you could...

CBOE made two attempts at something that might be accessible to retail, DOOMs and Credit Event Binary Options, but both are now defunct as far as I know. The ICE Eris credit futures are still somewhat alive. The problem in general with exchanges that especially impacts these type of products...

In that case the rational thing to do is to open a whole bunch of special purpose entity LLCs, take opposite risky positions before big events and declare chapter 7 with all the losing entities?

I'd be surprised if any broker was willing to give you full margin capability in an LLC or corporate account without requiring you to either demonstrate that the corporation had significant assets or provide a personal guarantee.

"The chart" doesn't determine if a company files for bankruptcy or not. Get a grip people, while there may be some behavioral finance information embedded in charts they most certainly can't be used to predict if an investor owned utility will be held liable for fires caused by their equipment...

I was envisioning a market that you would access through your broker in the same manner as you access the stock/option market now.

While we're somewhat tangentially on the subject, the stock lending marketplace seems like a great opportunity to me from a business perspective. What are the structural reasons that there isn't a central, liquid, transparent marketplace for lending that's used by most of the market?

A bit circular but it's implied in how much put-call parity is broken. Otherwise you can look at borrow rates at your broker, not ideal because they vary so much from day to day because the borrow market is so opaque and inefficient.

I hate infographics like this. So if you imported a trillion dollars in crude and exported a trillion and one dollars in refined petroleum products this would call that your biggest export, which while perhaps technically true isn't really very reflective of economic activity of a country. Add...

Future taxes will also pay for this exact same thing under the status quo, just done by the various state and federal agencies who already do this and have been for decades. Why is it a bad thing to allow competition in tree trimming (although to be fair it's mostly done under competitive bids...

That's a tough ask for two reasons. First, it's a tiny niche and those outside that niche don't understand it well enough to be comfortable funding someone in it. Second, a good chunk of power trading firms went out of business back post-Enron and more recently many of the independent power...

You probably don't know much about forestry, I do only by the accident of growing up with parents who were foresters. Every state with forests has a pretty robust program for wildfire mitigation that involves clearing and controlled burns on state land. Same thing at the federal level on Forest...

I think he also correctly predicted 18 of the last 3 bear markets?

Simple question, why are sanctioning Iran?