Search results

It's a hell of a lot easier to model the forward curve for speculative purposes using convexity spreads as compared to flat price directional bets on the spot cash or prompt futures contract in more than a few professional trader's opinions. Look at the surviving prop firms - most of the big...

As I read this thread, "predictive value" is your own prose - not Mav's. Mav speaks of the necessity of the forward curve strictly from the standpoint of a VALUATION component - which is a legitimate fact and you mistakenly construe as predictive. The best example I can give you that...

When I started out I cleared my own small account with TransMarket to scalp T-Bond futures - Ray Cahnman gave me three trading rules and told me my goal was to survive for 6 months.

I answered less than 1 year simply because in terms of intraday/day trading you will almost certainly run out of capital well before you learn to survive - much less become profitable. I greatly admire any trader with a mouse that thrives Day trading because you are a rare and truly special...

I respectfully disagree with the greatest enthusiasm on your points about the forward curves in the commodities. All commodities. I've made a living for many years trading the forward curves in commodities - exchange futures, OTC Bilateral Physical, OTC Financial Swaps. The forward curve is...

From knowing nothing about spreads to becoming quite competent and eager to trade live - takes my clients about 12-15 months. Since I started taking on client work in 2008, I've had over 150 ET Members become clients.

From knowing nothing about spreads to becoming quite competent and eager to trade live - takes my clients about 12-15 months.

AutoSpreader and other multiple product legging software tools have to be registered with the trading exchange - the orders they submit to the exchange are not firm orders, they are conditional orders. As such, the orders these registered tools submit to the exchange are specially designated...

From knowing nothing about spreads to becoming quite competent and eager to trade live - takes my clients about 12-15 months.

Typically, the more legs you have in an intramarket spread the narrower the trading range will be and the mean reversion characteristics will be more pronounced. As was so well illustrated in the previous post more complex Spread combinations are expensive to execute and slippage concerns are...

No.

And that factor you cite only hurts the Peso and strangles the native economy. In 2015, there was $531B worth of trade between the US and Mexico. The US runs an annual trade deficit of ~$50B /year with Mexico. The Office of National Drug Control Policy estimates that $100 billion worth of...

I have a client who has been training with me for 15 months who now wants to go live (great paper trading metrics). He's keeping his day job (smart) and will ramp things up progressively as capital accumulation and risk warrants.

The Peso has a long standing perception deficit. Rooted in reality.

I have clients signed on 12-18 months ago now going live.

1. Ditch Barchart. Utterly useless for proper spreads modeling. 2. You don't need "depth of market" to swing trade spreads. Ditch CTS for your purposes - you're not going to day trade spreads. 3. I have my clients use a proper FCM with a legit commercial 24 hour execution desk. Paying $1 /...

I have done and seen plenty of PIT traders and PIT brokers hold Spread positions for days, weeks, months. And if you are standing in a pit with a membership your execution costs are pennies. And if there ever was a place where daytrading was king it was the Chicago and NYC pits. That should...

Nice quote but it completely misses the point I was trying to convey. Having a limited sphere of trade choices makes for riskier entries. Forcing trades loses capital. Boredom doesn't equate to improved trading performance in the sense of limiting yourself to maybe nine prompt month calendar...

Still one more benefit to staying away from the prompt month calendar roll and gravitating more towards intramarket Spread combinations out in the curve. Calendar pair spreads comprising the first three months generally speaking seem to behave in a VERY delta directional manner as compared to...