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  1. bone

    Dilbert on Climate Change

  2. bone

    Iron ore futures

    From what I can tell, iron ore is primarily an OTC traded product. I wouldn't trust that the time and sales you see from a very illiquid futures product in any way reflects the actual valuation of the cash market in any meaningful way. This is pretty common with "new" or illiquid futures. In...
  3. bone

    Rent an office or trade from home?

    Wherever you can focus and the distractions are minimal - and most importantly, where you make the best trading decisions. Prop traders might not have a choice in the matter - especially the futures traders.
  4. bone

    All Bonds created " Equal " ??

    The point values for ZB, ZN, and ZF are the same. The tic values (minimal price movement differential) are different for each - please look on the CME website for the contract specs. The point value for ZT is different because the notional value of the instrument is $200K and not $100K...
  5. bone

    Rent an office or trade from home?

    I do both. Actively.
  6. bone

    The S&P has topped

    Nassim Talib might argue there's a cheap proxy call regarding your view.
  7. bone

    The S&P has topped

  8. bone

    SpreadProfessor Clients - Thanks !

    Great share, thanks ! Yeah, I agree with the general message in that article as it pertains to currencies vs. commodities correlations. I have always found them to unreliable (sooner or later) in the sense that the correlation eventually disintegrates without warning and essentially destroys...
  9. bone

    Cutting Winners Problem

    When I set targets, I model recent trading ranges. If I get cute, and for example run forward regressions in order to squeeze out more - for me it doesn't have a happy ending as you suggested in your post. We only know what we know. The majority of the time the market runs past - sometimes...
  10. bone

    Moving from a Prof Prop Trader to Using Other People's Money

    I know that I am cutting and pasting from your complete original posting, but in my mind this is likely a contradiction that would not be enthusiastically received by any potential investor. Having said that, my best advice would be to seek out and approach a home office investment group in...
  11. bone

    Moving from a Prof Prop Trader to Using Other People's Money

    I have met traders who do it, but they had to prove their mettle first at the office and in person.
  12. bone

    Rent an office or trade from home?

    I have an office about ten minutes from my home, but I have a more limited home office with execution and analytics. The gym is halfway between so I make my circuitous route. The office has significantly better line speeds than I am able to get at home - the management company touts this as a...
  13. bone

    Cutting Winners Problem

    It's not known to me if you have a consistent methodology for setting profit and stop-loss levels at the time of trade entry - after many years of trading and client work that's where I've landed FWIW. For me, my winners are about 2 x my loser net amounts, and my Win/Loss ratio is certainly...
  14. bone

    30 and 10 year bonds Question

    One look at the order book and you will realize there will be no issues for slippage on a hundred lot. None. That's the least or your worries.
  15. bone

    SpreadProfessor Clients - Thanks !

    When you have properly constructed and modeled a spread trade, you make an entry based upon your expectation for the delta or "spread" between the instruments to either converge or diverge. It's a game within a game.
  16. bone

    CL Spreads

    When you have properly constructed and modeled a spread trade, you make an entry based upon your expectation for the delta or "spread" between the instruments to either converge or diverge. It's a game within a game.
  17. bone

    Renaissance keeps making billionaires

    Successful day traders can indeed make very high returns. For an individual, it's just way more difficult to lever it beyond a certain point. You can daytrade the piss out of $10M - It's quite another thing altogether to put $500M to work on an intraday only basis. Just my own 2 cents, YMMV.
  18. bone

    Lumber

    There has always been a thriving physical OTC market between mills and distributors. The CBOT futures contract never went anywhere. Where the market really gets pinched is during some catastrophic event - hurricanes in particular.
  19. bone

    Arbitrage system forward test

    From my own experience, forward or back testing any type of legitimate arbitrage is pointless. The most important consideration - execution efficiency, simply cannot be gleaned from tic data or time & sales data. You cannot make a reasonable assumption with respect to execution fills using...
  20. bone

    How do you approach trading spreads like this?

    Yeah, many of my clients don't want to spend the $2K per month on the TT Autospreader. For swing trading, it's just not really necessary from our experience over the past several years. The big Chicago FCMs also have 24 execution desks - and for $1/RT they can execute your Spread for you (they...
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