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On the Daily today’s a Dragonfly Doji which is Bullish. If you’re a Market Profile affincionado same same scenario - a quickly rejected foray away from an established Control Area.

That’s not necessarily true. Changes in forward supply versus demand expectations will play a MUCH larger role with intramarket forward curve convexity changes than outright vol. If your premise regarding vol and spreads were true I would just play flat price straddles and strangles and...

Man they bought the living shit out of that dip as it was decisively rejected; ES actually settled slightly higher than the open - after hours we are making new highs. Once again. Relentless.

I have no pretext of the future, but buying dips in this market has certainly worked out swimmingly for the past several years.

Relentless.

The world is awash in supply. North America has completely altered the paradigm. I just cannot envision CL > $75. Frankly, $50 is pushing it. Refinery capacity, that’s another matter altogether.

Just relentless. Good luck with your next call. Personally I just can't identify with the proposition of timing a market without confirmatory price action.

Eurodollar spreads model and trend great - but you absolutely have to sit with it to make it worthwhile. I've had on some GE spreads for several months. Literally.

ICE #11 Sugar intra market spreads.

What the trader is trying to model and ultimately capture in a proper spread trade is either the convergence or divergence between at least two highly correlated products (both statistically and fundamentally correlated). Inter market spreads are highly correlated positions using different...

I personally would not use the term "stationary" (in the quite literal sense synonymous with the word 'static' for example) to describe a properly constructed spread position. What the trader is trying to model and ultimately capture in a proper spread trade is either the convergence or...

WIIFM is the cornerstone of all mutually symbiotic relationships - business, personal, environmental ecosystems... If WIIFM is not mutually beneficial then the relationship fails. Businesses fail for lack of customers, marriages end in divorce, and in ecosystems the biotic (living) and...

I was mentored by Ray Cahnman and a couple monster Treasury Spread traders while clearing my own account at TransMarket Group. I was mentored by Pete Franz of Lehman fame at a commercial energy trading desk. I was mentored by David Ellis - a legend in the S&P pit, while proprietary trading at...

This is a repeat from another post of mine, but maybe it will add some color. There are plenty of proprietary futures traders in Chicago, NYC, London, Sydney, Singapore who day trade inter and intra market spreads (for stupid size typically), but they have the significant advantage of Member...

Generally speaking, your points are fair. There are plenty of proprietary futures traders in Chicago, NYC, London, Sydney, Singapore who day trade inter and intra market spreads (for stupid size typically), but they have the significant advantage of Member Clearing rates and just a few cents in...

Out of curiosity when did the smell become noticeable for you - in 2009 when the bull run started; in late 2016 when Trump got elected... when? And where is there better yield exactly for the professional asset manager - Sovereign debt ? Corporate paper ? Commodities ?

Personally I have four rules-based conditions that need to be satisfied before I enter a trade. I do use a highly refined TA indicator package but the other three rules are by design and intent not data sampling oriented. This is the point which I have arrived at over the course of a couple...

Well, I think that he's being much more sensible in terms of giving his trade premise a chance to work and for that I applaud him and wish him good fortune. In terms of "higher chance of success" I would say that his odds don't change for the better per se. IMHO what would increase his odds...

In terms of the US Equity Index Markets - since 2009, technical indicators in the class of wave counts, cycles, and oscillators have sodomized countless speculators trying to time the top of this beast.

This is just freaking relentless. Serious accumulation and price improvement. Clearly very smart and well informed professionals assess that there remains yields superior in the US equity markets as compared to other asset classes - even at these nosebleed prices. And US shares have indeed...