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That's been my conclusion combing through the literature as well. Blockchain has more growth potential than BTC as an individual instrument. Some really really big industrials are going all in on blockchain - same can't be said for BTC at the moment.

Not if you're thinking that the futures participants will be leaning on the options markets. The options market makers will bid and offer with a wider spread than the futures - look at just about any options on futures market. Options market makers are going to lean on first the futures and...

That Given the nose bleeding vol swings in BTC we've seen to date the intraday and daily maintenance margin changes are going to take most retailers out of the game. That initial margin even at 100% could even be $ VWXYZ, but a 30% bump in maintenance margin would not be small potatoes for...

Mav, I would trust this one more than others: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/cf-bitcoin-reference-rate.html http://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/datamine-historical-data.html

Any ERCOT real time traders out there ? Go try out BitCoin.

Well, Mav, your experience with distillates should put you in the right mindset at least.

Looking at BitCoin Volatility I'm not convinced that the futures margin requirements would be able to attract such a wide swath of retail traders. I'll put it another way - the contract spec (which is not finalized) would have to utilize a really really modest notional value in order to be...

If you had read my post more carefully before replying, you’d realize that I addressed the weather and insurance futures problems as wholly liquidity related in a separate paragraph citing manifold problems with previous futures contracts rollouts.

Futures arbitrage (and for that matter a successful futures contract) survives on a robust basis component. As far as I can tell, the bitcoin cash to futures basis is imho a bit dodgy (polite) as is currently being floated by CME.

As you can tell, I have already started modeling arbitrage possibilities and the best (and safest strategy) would get me thrown in jail if I were to attempt it with a sovereign currency.

In terms of “lead-lag”, my guess is that the futures would only become as prominent as you posit only on the condition that the buyer could take delivery - in other words, like other physically fungible commodities a futures buyer essentially buys from the futures exchange. This is not how the...

Given the fungibility challenges inherent to crypto currencies and the use of spot fx data pools of varying unregulated quality for pricing benchmarks my guess is that the settlements - especially at expiry, will be gamed and manipulated up the wazoo.

The lesson to be learned is painful: calling market “tops” without confirmatory price action is shit risk/reward. OP has been at it since February and if real money was ever truly involved then the drawdowns have been fantastic.

Price improvement in terms of fills can be a double-edged sword. For higher volatility products like RBOB, HO, CT I will almost assuredly be hitting a bid or lifting an offer. For lower volatility products like GE that I want to sell, for example, I will work an offer but if the bid starts...

I've had 160 clients who paper traded spreads with me - nearly all of them were seasoned trading veterans. If you are honest and accountable with yourself and set your profit and your stop-loss levels at time of paper trade entry it is a great way to learn ! Some guys insist on having skin in...

Where's your stop-loss this time ?

I think that for your particular circumstance - The better idea for your paper trading scenario is to mark the exact price and timestamp for each one of your entries ( long leg and short leg simultaneously), and then again at exit. Your profit or loss will net out from each leg.

The central issue here is how brief the down moves last. Look at the lows versus the settlement on 10/19 and 10/25 - those down moves are getting snapped up with great enthusiasm.

Well maybe those bikinis will initiate a serious sell off with some meaningful WEEKLY follow-through! (lower lows and lower highs in order to attract noteworthy commercial order flows) I wish you good fortune.

I’ll just share what I do - I will use continuous, consolidated futures contracts as a synthetic intermarket Spread expression ratio’d according to the most current CBOT ICS Treasury pricing sheet. Bloomberg makes this much easier btw. The exchange ICS market price ladder and exchange data is...