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Still Looking to the ES for Direction F2 Comments: Strong market to the upside today. It broke out when 114-01 fell and the buying wasn’t over until 115-19 was touch and retested. The market moved into developing value and traded 115-07 for the rest of the day. The analysis favors a retest...

No News On Tuesday - Watch the ES F2 Comments: An interesting day. Support was found early in the session and the market did rally to 113-25 before the day session closed. The profile was a weak “P”. The market is pointed higher w/some help from the ES. If the market can’t take out and...

Preparing for Monday 10/20 F2 Comments: Market did rally off the Housing Starts news. Fundamentals played until the ES recovered from its lows, The fundamentals have been generally set aside. We were looking for a new move to start out of the 114-08 level and it did today. This will be...

Charles Cochran's Comments and Preview of Friday 10/17 F2 Comments: Another trading range day w/a P formed after the support at 113-08/12 was retested and held. The early news was supportive, but ignored. And in M period a possible MoM emerged taking the market to our #2 support zone. This is...

Volume Exhaustion on Wednesday 10/15 Once again, a prime volume exhaustion trade presents itself. I've labeled the bars on the chart as to which would be an aggressive or conservative entry. This is one of TIE's basic staple trades. It presents itself generally at least once a day. It...

Pause After the Run-Up F2 Comments: The market paused as we suspected after Monday’s sharp break. Pause/consolidation after a big move is the most likely outcome. While the market did pause until M period, volume did build lower and the pattern favored a “b”. This suggests lower prices...

Textbook Volume Exhaustion When you look up volume exhaustion in the dictionary, this should be the chart that accompanies the definition. To qualify, you need a bar whose volume is far and away higher than any other bar in the vicinity. There must be no follow through in the direction of...

Columbus Day F2 Comments: The selling ended in C period this morning. Lost some selling momentum in the OVN session too. Big meetings in DC this weekend that will probably set the course for the market next week. The acceptance of the conclusions and proposed support programs by the markets...

High Volume Bars Signal Possible Reversal When a volume spike occurs, the expectation is for immediate follow through. When that doesn't happen, there is a strong possibility for a market reversal. The volume histogram, in the first panel under the chart proper, is the place to watch for a...

Early Analysis for 10/8 F2 Comments: Another day of trading in a range from 120-08- to 122-00+. The news on the stock market was bad. The news in the banking industry was bad. The fundamentals still favor higher prices. If the ES does break 1000 and to continue to sell, the Bond should see...

Volatility Continues F2 Comments: The volatility continues. Big days in all markets and should continue until the stock markets settle down. No news today, nor tomorrow to drive the markets. Stock market meltdown is the force that is driving the markets. Investors have fled to Treasuries to...

Methodology Solid Under Pressure As every experienced trader knows, an effective methodology must be able to withstand all market conditions. Today was another extreme day that will effectively test any method. At 9:24am eastern time, the market began a 7 tick setback to a previous level...

Charles Cochran's Comments for Monday 10/6 F2 Comments: Another trading range day. The Unemployment news was bullish. The Bond sold. Go figure. The ES finished weak. The Bond is set to trade higher given weakness in the ES. That said, if the ES is weak on Monday morning and the Bond doesn’t...

Market Still On Hold F2 Comments: The market was on hold today setting up for tomorrow’s Unemployment news. It can be a market mover. The lowest risk way to play important news is on a setback with the news. Then if the range isn’t extended, exit the trade. NFP is expected at -103K and...

Volume Is The Attractor In the attached chart, I've consolidated the Market Profile distributions for the last 5 days and compared it to today's distribution. The histogram on the right side of the chart represents volume from the last 180 days. The shaded area superimposed on the TPO's is a...

Tuesday 9/30 Recap F2 Comments: Another huge day. This time it was lower. 120-00+ stopped the buying and when the market took out 119-16 the selling didn’t stop until 116-28 was hit on the close. The market activity and structure favor selling to retest 116-20/25. If this level holds, we...

A Heads-Up for Tuesday F2 Comments: The news drove the market all day. The Congress’s failure to act on the bail out bill was smoked out early by the markets and the Bond hit 121-00 before the buying was over. The close was strong. The market activity favors higher prices or a retest of...

Early Exhaustion on Monday 9/29 There were two setback trades on Monday morning, but since I've been talking about volume exhaustion recently, I'll use the VE example. The 10:15am bar was 20 ticks in length but the 10:20 bar continued the move. Even though it was a 10 tick bar, the volume...

Preparing for Monday 9/29 F2 Comments: A trading range day when it was all said and done. Day session close was neutral too. Profile pattern was a D. Based on the objective data and news the market should remain in a trading range. Next time for a potential move will be when the bailout is...

Volume Exhaustion on 9/25 This example of volume exhaustion belongs in a textbook. Buy when price trades out the top of the exhaustion bar. The run up after the exhaustion was 19 ticks or $593.75 per lot traded. Part of that could have been yours.