Search results

  1. M

    Mindset of a losing trader

    As stated again and again. Psychology is not the root cause of losing as a trader. It's the lack of edge. If you really think you can create alpha by drawing a couple of lines on your chart as your only source of trade generation, you are wrong. Now the financial education industry makes you...
  2. M

    Mindset of a losing trader

    If you had a proper plan that you know is gonna work out in the long run you would not derive from it
  3. M

    What are some low risk to reward ratio strategies?

    No, because you calculate Expected Value positive probability*positive outcome-negative probability*negative outcome. How would you want to calculate your expectancy when the only thing you know is the premium received, but not the loss due to adverse moves in the underlying? Either the...
  4. M

    What are some low risk to reward ratio strategies?

    IMO this is the classic idiocy that is created by the retail options education industry. You CANNOT calculate ITM probability by looking at options deltas. Options delta is IMPLIED by the options price aka implied volatility. If the option you are writing is priced too low it's implied ITM...
  5. M

    How flexible is TT - can I write a market making algo for crypto.

    Not meant to be critique, I'm using TT myself for a part of my trading. But to make markets with mid frequency, you still have to write your own code for pretty much every exchange there is out there.
  6. M

    How flexible is TT - can I write a market making algo for crypto.

    TT is not colocated. Algos are fine but it's too slow
  7. M

    Past floor traders

    That's why I'm stating it here. Thing is that a position doesn't magically evolve into a strategy just because you look at it from another angle. If the account is too small to trade the correct ratios, either trade a cheaper underlying or just don't trade volatility at all.
  8. M

    Past floor traders

    Agree 100% The difference between retail and pro is the fact that retail sees positions as strategies and for pros it's inventory. There is a difference between trading against a stable inventory to make money on the bid/offer and slapping on a position to profit from decay. Edge loss on...
  9. M

    Past floor traders

    So here is what you do: Go to https://optioncreator.com/new Create the following position: Then toy around with adjusting the implied volatility in the chart below. I just eyeballed the strikes so don't hold me hostage on the 25 delta wings, but you'll get the idea. In addition...
  10. M

    Past floor traders

    They did what you said but there was more behind it. The reason why professional traders and market makers are so keen on neutral options trading is because volatility is mean reverting AND vega is linear ATM and has convexity OTM. Meaning if you structure your inventory correctly, it's almost...
  11. M

    Past floor traders

    Nah, not over complicated. As a MM they always wanted to be neutral, also to vega. Flat skew - > Butterflies (that is short vega with stock at the body) -> buy high vomma wings so that you are vega neutral but long vega convexity. When vol goes down and stock trades at body, you win. When...
  12. M

    Past floor traders

    First of all what you are describing is a position, not a strategy. Second, it depends on skew and term structure. If 9m vol is cheap and 3m are expensive, you buy 9m straddles and sell fewer expensive 3m against it to have a flat gamma profile. Tgis way you are long vol and long wings. If...
  13. M

    Any traders in here who specialize in volatility skew and probabilities-based strategies?

    First of all, a risk reversal has a lot of vanna, meaning moves in implied volatility change its deltas. Let's say you are long 25d puts and short 25d calls. Increasing vol adds short deltas and you get long deltas when vol drops. So a risk reversal is never really neutral and you have to trade...
  14. M

    Which broker to trade futures calendar spreads?

    Dorman Trading is decent. Most important thing: The broker knows how to margin spreads correctly
  15. M

    Most Effective Way To Go Long Volatility?

    Best long vol positions for me are either butterflies with added wings or ratioed (gamma neutral) calendars. You get paid for waiting and wehn the market is flying it rains money
  16. M

    Any traders in here who specialize in volatility skew and probabilities-based strategies?

    A word on risk management: the best way to do this is to establish limits for the greeks. Have a limit for gamma, vega, skew delta and vanna and readjust your positions based on greeks, not portfolio P/L. As your P/L is path dependend you need to make sure you establish boundaries that help you...
  17. M

    The Fed is Getting Serious about Creating a Fake err. Digital Dollar

    Look dude, the US had their chance and probably still have. But they turned from a crowd of hard working and humble people into a bunch of arrogant whiny bitches. China inovated while the US was screaming and kicking over how bad Bitcoin is and how it could be regulated. The US should have taken...
  18. M

    Nearly 10,000 cryptos now, but only ~35 are seeing any action??

    Utility = Value. And by the way...who let believe? There is no marketing department.
  19. M

    Doge - IMO - Daily update

    Plot Twist: DOGE has no developers
  20. M

    Nearly 10,000 cryptos now, but only ~35 are seeing any action??

    Bitcoin is the asset. It's used as a token to pay for transactions on the chain. The FED is auctioning bonds that they re-buy. How does that suddenly make these an asset?
Back
Top