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Small/micro caps, crypto, exotic derivatives. Much more edge. ES is close to damn perfect. Big players trade for scratch rate instead of winrate

Ah yes? So why is everyone losing when it's so predictable?

cool...only weeklies and zero history. Not much to be honest...except that I would buy gamma in the shorter timeframes, since it's cheaper vol wise

I mean it is basically a call ladder/fence (i.e. a call spread financed with a short put) that is hedged to neutral with stock. Usually that is used for directional plays long into a declining vol environment...but 30 - 60 days out. You would buy back the decayed put option in order to get a...

Thanks for the condolences, buddy ;) I can see where you're coming from and I've been there, too. IMO it depends on your size, handling and view. Holding a structure like that for small size and trade it for pay off is probably not an issue. But it is way too unpredictable to size it up and...

The biggest issue I have with this setup aside from short convexity is that it is very sensitive to skew dynamics, because you go out so far in terms. Theta/gamma is not an issue here, everything is vol. You lose to put skew and you're short kurtosis, too. Second, as you can see from your...

Hm...I have no idea of the delta of these strikes, but they look like being between 15 and 25...kinda. And I can tell you that it is a very, very, very (did I mention very?) bad idea to sell these without protection ESPECIALLY on long terms. Here's why: https://myoptioncourse.com/option-vomma...

No. That's where you and probably 90% of retail are wrong. Delta gives you the odds that are implied by the option. But true odds cannot be known. Your bet is: "the option implies 25% odds on a strike touch while my guess is that in reality the odds are 35%" That's it. That's your trade...

Kelly works when your expected value is positive and your odds are fixed. When you trade options, your odds are unknown and when you sell lower than actual odds you trade at negative expected value

That's a good way to blow up your account^^ The "odds" you're talking about are implied by the options prices...and they don't necessarily mirror your true odds. The true return distribution is unknown and you're betting against it by buying cheap implied distribution and selling expensive...

Mastering The Grain Markets by Elaine Kub

I have never traded meats in my entire live. Cattle still has a live pit and the market is so opaque. I would not know where to start researching and those farmers know a thing more or two about cows than me

Basis in metals is about storage costs + supply and demand in the market. I don't trade ags but the old crop/new crop game is pretty much all about basis. In metals, basis is a bit more subtle, you're right

here you go, buddy :)

When people lose their shirt doing stupid stuff they can be salty sometimes. You're forgiven

:D:D:D:D what a monkey...on the ignore list he goes

Look guys, OP basically answered his own question. The inflation up/gold up narrative is around for ages now since it worked in the past. Now everyone who is into inflation trades already has a position in gold...who is going to buy if everyone has already bought? If you try to squeeze the...

How is that stupid question even relevant for this forum? Go read IBs commission schedule

" I don't trade options but I just traded 1k of OTM AAPL options expiring today" Sounds about right...I would recommend visiting r/wallstreetbets. They have advice for you and point you into the right direction

oh pls, you're not just new to options, you're new to trading in general. Please do yourself and your account a favour and stick to papertrading for a while until you've learned these very basics. After that, trade ONE options contract and DO NOT sell options short...that part comes later :)