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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Bank runs?
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Larry Meyer: Fed will go all-in in a new recession, way too early for QE3(He said the same thing about QE2) http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000037341
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I'm actually long BAC plus got another limit order for today in my short-term systematic trading account. But its just a snapback play
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    More than 80 points range in the ES Globex session, insane
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Its very easy to overestimate the probabilities of those events when stocks are down a lot and the VIX is high. It was one of my lessons from 2008 -When the VIX is high, don't trust opinions, even your own. Look at the numbers and make rational decisions. Its very easy to get caught up in the...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I'm down quite a bit on my BRKB purchases. But frankly I'm thinking of buying more. Stock is at GAAP book value, the true book value(What buffett calls intrinsic value, IValue) is quite a bit higher and that should grow by, say, 10%-13% a year(Historically is has done much better but Buffett...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I agree with much of this. I have to laugh at US stocks falling 6.6%(how many trillions is that?) as a result of a downgrade The downgrade and its bottlenecks issues are like Y2K issues, nothing that people working voluntarily towards a solution can't solve. You wont see humanity implode...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    The rumors are talking about Paulson level 'large', not just a big fund
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Fox news media hatred explained http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/08/08/tim-groseclose-author-of-left-turn-answers-your-questions/
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Anyone has any strong opinion on these rumors that a large hedge fund got a margin call yesterday?
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    Fed Confidence in Transitory Inflation Hinges on Low Wage Gains

    Looks like the Fed was right
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Interestingly enough after underperforming for a long-time the August massacre will probably get him to outperform the indexes by a large margin
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Apparently the VIX had a larger one day gain than any day in 2008
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Who are these sources?Seems like a massive amount
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Seems quite likely Fed should put out a more serious possibility of QE3 tomorrow in the statement. I don't think they will tie their hands though
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    Time to buy here

    I've seen studies showing that using stops to play bounces in equity indexes actually hinder performance. The correct way is to stay long till the quant analysis shows a big edge is not there anymore(usually due a bounce but could be just stabilization) The stop tends to take out just when...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    worshipping?lol, most of the time I'm trying to predict their behavior so I can trade on a informed view. It seems that on ET if you talk about Bernanke/Geithner/Trichet,etc without curse words or bitching in the same sentence people take it as an endorsement of everything they ever did
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I just find hard to believe the 3rd largest debtor will be allowed to default without exhaustion of all options. Even if Germany walks out, the IMF will try to do something about it. What do you think its the most likely scenario?
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I understand this but I just don't buy the Armageddon scenario(They will let them burn), they have been willing to bailout insolvent countries to prevent minor defaults, its hard to see them allowing solvent countries to create massive defaults, there is Lehmanphobia out there. I believe even...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    The facts are undeniable, Italy has a primary budget surplus and with reforms could achieve a budget surplus in a few years. This means that with the liquidity support they don't present any real risk
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