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What is interesting is that, IIRC, Soros was pretty skeptical of the Reagan rally in the 80's. I recall from the Alchemy of Finance that he kept trying to bet against it saying that the thesis of the 'bull market of a lifetime' was wrong. But at some point he gave up on that and banked huge from...

Markets held up

Markets looking like shit again, tried another short. see if it goes this time

As a matter of fact, not sticking around losing shorts is something I learned from the descriptions of how Soros trades. He is said not to be loyal to losing positions and doesn't care at all about closing them. Its a little puzzling why he fought the market like that. As soon as the market made...

Soros lost $1B betting against the Trump rally http://www.wsj.com/articles/billionaire-george-soros-lost-nearly-1-billion-in-weeks-after-trump-election-1484227167 Even though he lost, I like the methodology that he uses. Soros is net long a lot of assets including "The broader portfolio held...

EWZ and the Bovespa are flirting with 52 week highs as people realize that the central bank will drive down the returns on BRL cash down and they will have to take some risk if they want a good return. Whole Trump sell-off on this was stupid, Brazil will be a very internally driven story for...

They are even forecasting inflation bellow their 4.5% target in the coming years, i think that will be right, with the risks to the downside

Brazilian CB cut rates by a higher than expected 75bps. Guess they are not that incompetent

SPY stopped me out and went weak again. I avoid trading indices like a plague, they drive me nuts. So much back and forth bs. i tried again smaller

Got stopped out of the short but this was a nice example of what is likely to happen when market goes from a Trump on to a Trump off mode. Stocks slide, bonds and gold pop, the US dollar falls

Taking a shot short on S&P500 on this Trump press conference which seems to be leading to selling.

Lets say you have data of monthly change in interest rates Which formula would tell you the % gain or loss of such bond as interest rates change? Assuming the maturity stays constant

And as far as S&P500 index shorts go, as it gets closer to inaguration it becomes more likely there will be a buy the rumor sell the news type effect so its a potential short trade. Its hard to time it but I got an eye on doing that soon

I guess that could work for some. For me it would be the opposite, in these last 4 years being involved with short-term trading of micro/small and mid caps I really got to see the destructive power that they have to short accounts. I got hurt in some of them (KBIO being the most extreme example)...

I believe he could have done the same thing without the shorts. That's pretty much what Buffett does, presses his longs beyond 100% exposure (that is, he uses leverage) IF he is able to secure a stable funding source (float insurance, bond issuance, etc) Dalio suggests applying leverage to an...

VRX "deals bring in cash to deal with 7% of debt at a cost of 1% of EBITDA" http://seekingalpha.com/article/4035536-objective-review-valeants-asset-sales?app=1&auth_param=4p0c3:1c79p9v:4b8ff71640eb6e57f9a653d8d8c92880&uprof=44#alt2 Shorts have no clue what the breakup value of VRX is, if they...

This is also why when Hempton shorts small and mid caps, he cant claim he is taking less risk than the market. That is only true if he is defining risk as 'short-term correlation to the S&P500'. Sure, if there is a crash or financial crisis, having those shorts will look great but he is also...

Fun stats: Since 1928, looking at annual data, the S&P500 has an annual SD of returns of 19.55% Skewness of -0.215 and Kurtosis of -0.1232 Gold has a SD of 18.86%, Skewness of +1.65 and Kurtosis of +6.31. Similar volatility but tail risk profiles are vastly different. Stocks are more vulnerable...

Ackman said there were several billions dollars worth of stuff that people never even knew were salable assets. Now VRX is selling skincare brands no one cared about for over ten times revenue "today announced that it has entered into an agreement to sell its CeraVe, AcneFree and AMBI skincare...

Pearson bought Provenge two years ago for $400m, now they are flipping it for over $800m. Short thesis starting to fall apart