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I just put a small short on late 2018 Fed funds futures, I still got to figure out the best month to express the trade and how much size to use but at this point I rather be in that out

You are thinking on the first level, the appearences. I was actually pretty skeptical of equities until Trump won, then I showed through numbers that it doesnt take much growth to send the market a lot higher. If long-term GDP growth inches up, SPX has an exponential sensitivity to it. Its not a...

Did I quick run down of my positions so I can figure some things out 17.6% EWZ EWZS 14% PSH 12.3% BRKB 11% 4y US T-bonds 10.43% gold. (8.7% GLD 1.73% gold stocks) 5% Brazil REITs 4.4% OAK 4.15% 30y US T-bonds 3.2% VWO (EM Stocks) 1.96% FNMAS 1.5% GREK 0.8% 30y US STRIPS 3.82% US small cap long...

SNAP borrow rate now is 88% on IB. This should come down over the next weeks as trades settle. Yet, I bet it will still be high as there will be a lot of skeptics. So maybe it goes to around 20-30% avg for the year. So a long at $23 can get $8 in income by lending out shares. Effectively, he...

Here he says the 1% real neutral fed funds will have to be arrived at a lot faster if the French election goes the right way (Le Pen loses) and the US does stimulus. The market does not expect that. Tepper is raising the possibility of a mini 1994 bond collapse (though, these are my words not...

Tepper says long-term US GDP growth could rise 0.5% through the deregulation and other stuff. This would justify pretty much all the Trump rally. In fact, I believe the market would be undervalued according to my estimates

Part of the key of being a good long investor seems to be able to recognize when you get lucky and all the sudden your invesment has a lot more upside than you thought (or the chance of the upside has improved). Maybe this is going on now with Brazil if the 'syncronized growth' thesis plays out...

Brazil also has a huge output gap right now. All the labor, tecnologies, buildings, capital goods are there. All the country needs is to get animal spirits going (and syncronized global growth could help with that) and then GDP will pop hard

But this 'syncronized growth' thesis from Tepper is interesting, part of the bearish thesis on Brazil is that idea of 'every country since 2008 had a weak recovery, there is no reason to expect a strong one in Brazil'. But those were big countries that didn't get a syncronized growth period to...

I'm actually looking to increase my GREK bet a bit. If Tepper is right and the world can have this stable growth period ('syncronized growth' as he calls it, 'unsual since the crisis') that he seems to think (lead by US, France, Japan, China), Greece will be sensitive to that, especially on the...

Maybe the 60MA and 220MA on a closing basis? That way, the people using the 50 and 200 can flush themselves out of the market and I will be in. I will only be out if the folks with the 50 and 200 get a follow through out of their sell signal (if they are just panicking into each other and...

Brazilian stocks have reacted pretty badly to the GDP report. But there are reasons to think this is just short-termism. Industrial production has has its first up month after 34 straight declines Plus the 'typical' moving averages are still uptrending and are far from crossing I say...

Tepper is a smart man, he is keenly aware that being in cash/bonds is like a 'short' in stocks (HF clients want gains above cash). So he says 'you can't go short in this enviroment'. If shorting is so bad, it must be a long what makes sense

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/08/david-tepper-you-bet-your-heinie-im-short-bonds.html http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/08/i-dont-think-the-markets-cheap-but-its-hard-to-go-short-with-economic-backdrop-says-appaloosas-david-tepper.html Tepper on bonds and stocks. He pretty much said that things I have...

Tepper says buy US and European stocks, SNAP (at the IPO price) and other than the French election that's not much that can go wrong this year. I'm hedged a little against the French thing through my EUR short, this also protects me against USD strength (leading to a fall in gold and gold...

Also, it would be good if I could minimize the amount of accounts that I have. If I had 1 trading account and 1 investment account that would be perfect. Unfortunately, that is hard to implement because IB is so much better than my other brokers that I sorta do both there. But perhaps I can find...

Ironically, this sort of 'natural hedge' ended up hurting me on VRX. I could have probably made a good deal of money daytrading the short side and sometimes the long side if I didn't had a long position in the first place. But in that case I hesitated and second guessed the trades too much, I...

The funny thing is that the Wall Street types will frequently just say bearish things about the company, they won't put a real short on. That is because in some level they understand this risk management issue. They understand that they don't know the probabilities and the payoffs in the...

The bias that random people have with wanting to get involved in IPOs or hyped up stocks is a similar bias that skeptical wall street types have with wanting to short them (directly or through bearish statements). They both get their emotions involved Except that the avg person is buying an...

A lottery is different because it has a limit on the upside prize (and the probabilities are known), an IPO, stock or certain options have no known probabilities (and they are impossible to estimate) and no known upper bound on the reward. This makes the statement 'this is overpriced' extremely...