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That's one way to look at it. Another would be that most of these people have been sufficiently brainwashed by the current politicians and mainstream financial media into believing that the worst is over and that buy and hold is still a valid strategy, because they've now seen the market come...

Yes, they are. Attempting to call absolute number tops and bottoms, however, is not. Those tricks are for kids.

Don't sweat it. The smart money will always need the dumb money to take the other side of trades. I learned long ago not to try and argue, and just take their money and say thank you. :D There's no question that this historic rally will end badly, just like the similar one in 1930...

Glad to see someone gets it. Honestly, I just don't understand so many people's obsessions with attempting to call absolute tops and bottoms. That's not where the big money is made on a consistent long term basis. Fool's game.

Not knowing exactly what analysis he did with those indicators, I cannot say. But those indicators are indeed used in TA. No, you are drawing false conclusions from my statements. I'm saying this is yet one more example of why TA is less and less reliable, at least in my experience. I...

I'm not saying it's useless completely, just that the more participants have come to be aware of TA as a strategy, the less reliable it has become. Which is why for instance, we see many more false breakouts and breakdowns than we used to. As always, if something works for you, then it works...

LOL, that guy was a perfect contrarian indicator if ever there was one. :D

This illustrates why attempting to call absolute numbers as far as tops or bottoms on the market is a fool's errand. Always has been, always will be. It also illustrates why TA is far less useful than it used to be.

Check back in a year to see if it's become any clearer for you.

Yep, pretty much agreed on all counts. Add in the next rounds of loan defaults that are coming with ARM resets next year, plus commercial RE and credit cards, and you've got a pretty good recipe for deflation for the next 18-24 months or more.

Not if you can consistently make good money off of it. :cool: But of course there's more to it than that, no single indicator or factor should be taken in a vacuum. In any case, many people's so called technical analysis can also be considered "noise". But if it works for you, it works...

Possible, but I disagree. First, I believe way too many people have come to rely on TA as a sole predictor, hence it is no longer as useful as it used to be. The more people know about and employ a certain strategy, the less effective it becomes, and TA has become WAY too popular in recent...

Makes perfect sense. That also explains at least one other identity he's been using that he posted on this thread as, except he forgot that he had logged in using the other identity and responded by signing the posts as "surf", which I found confusing at the time, but just glossed over. What...

Damn, the comedy was just starting to get good...

May as well be. Just keep hittin' the slots, eventually it might pay off, LOL! :D

Just like all the other tops it looked like that you called before. Yes, we know. Don't worry Surf, eventually if you keep calling tops, eventually you'll get one of them right. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then... :p

And as any trader worth his salt knows, timing is everything. Being right too soon is the same thing as being wrong, so whether or not your macro call pans out in the long run, you have failed. The ironic thing is I agree with you that gold is destined to move lower in the macro picture due...

At some point in the future you will be right, and gold will fall. But then again, this can be filed in the "even a broken clock is right twice a day" category. Here's a reminder for you-- being right too soon is the same as being wrong. Your calls have had no practical use in the real world...

I'm not sure what's more pathetic, marketsurfer's incessant need to continue being a broken clock waiting to be right at some point in the indeterminate future, or the moderator closing the thread only to reopen it for more amateur hour....sheesh...

Two reasons "so what". First, the fact that any time gold had any kind of dip you were posting here to pat yourself on the back. So the irony is thick indeed for you to have spent all this time and energy nurturing this prediction, only to now say 'so what'. But the more insidious thing is...