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And you base this on what, exactly? Just because you say so? I suppose we should just ignore the Dollar index's historical role as a leading indicator during eras of stagnation, eh? Here's a newsflash for you, facts do not require you to agree with them for them to be true nonetheless...

Then essentially your argument is "this time it's different". Sorry, that argument has never flown before and it doesn't fly now. People always go out of their way to find ways to explain how things are different now, and how that's why well established historical precedents are no longer...

Nope, I'm saying that neither the 2003 low nor the 2009 low were the ultimate lows for the markets during the current era of stagnation. That doesn't mean one should have just remained short the whole time. There is a big difference between investing during eras of stagnation versus eras of...

Fact remains, nowhere did I see you suggesting an impending collapse for the markets before it happened, nor did I see you suggesting an impending breathtaking historic rally before it happened. And your choice of selling all your stocks 3 months into the rally to buy UNG(!) is simply...

That is correct. But I'm talking about the larger secular bear market. The current era of stagnation began in 2000 and will not end for at least another 5 to 10 years based on historical standards (unless of course you again wish to argue against yourself that "this time its different). The...

But that's exactly what you're saying in essence, you just don't realize it. There has NEVER in history been a major bear market during an era of stagnation that ended with average dividend yields lower than 6%. At the March 2009 bottom, the yield on the S&P was 3.75%. So if your assertion is...

Well, as I stated the idea is to elect representatives to government who DON'T fit that mold. Note that I never said simply vote Republican. Both parties are at this point just two heads of the same monster.

Ding ding ding! We have a winner. Unfortunately, it won't play out that way. The military industrial complex will see to it that defense spending and wars don't lose a penny. So instead, we the taxpayers will get bled dry, both via taxes and inflation.

If there's a silver lining, it's that this bill won't kick in until 2014. That means we've got 2 Congressional election cycles and 1 presidential election to get the current cretins out of there and put in some sensible representatives to get this overturned and put us back on the right track...

Agreed.

The reason is that unlike most other investment assets, gold serves more than one function. The first is as a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty or calamity, hence its positive performance last year. The second is as a hedge against major inflation or perceived currency...

Has nothing to do with what I "come up with". The facts do not require you to agree with them for them to be true nonetheless. I'd suggest you take another look at the data from the BIS, then. The notional value of CDS's alone is only now slightly lower than it was when the crisis began...

The part that you're missing is it's not just the mortgage defaults themselves that are the problem, it's the leverage derived from them that levers the risk up by an order of magnitude. The whole OTC derivative market is still very much alive and kicking and all those CDO's, CDS's and other...

Not really. At best what it would mean is we'd simply repeat the Japanese experience, i.e. drag the collapse out over a much longer time frame than it otherwise would have been.

Actually that's false. Many of the mortgages still set to reset were teaser rate loans, in which case the payments will shoot up big time. Don't forget that most of the folks who got these loans, even the more credit worthy ones, got them during the frenzy of the RE bubble, and I'd wager that...

Sure. I don't presume to know the exact date or level at which the markets will top out and begin to turn back down as reality sets in. All I have is history as a guide. And recent history has shown us that when the subprime debt started blowing up, a collapse followed soon after. So I'll...

It's really no different than one making up their mind about the direction of the market over the next 10 minutes, or hour or day. And that's what each of us do when we take a position, regardless of the time frame, we make up our mind as to the direction we have decided is the most likely one...

Looks like we'll have to politely agree to disagree, then.

Actually, we're right on track, if you consider the historical parallels of the First Great Depression or Japan. In particular the First Great Depression. They had a crash in 1929, then a massive unprecedented rally in 1930, followed by a long slow slide into oblivion in 1931-1932 where the...

Guess whatever you want. I'm laddering into short positions on the Euro now. That's all you need to know. We'll see how it plays out, won't we?