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  1. bone

    Crude is screwed, man.

    John Arnold's staff traders were also spreaders. I know for a fact (counterparties to me) that their power desk were heat rate spreaders and forward term intra-hub spreaders. In fact, the big boys in energy are pretty much all spread traders. Even commercial production and consumption hedging...
  2. bone

    German Bond Futures - Which one better for daytrading?

    Use continuous, consolidated data. Also, keep in mind that this is a physically fungible futures contract with quarterly expiries. On occasion you will sometimes observe severe pricing corrections as the "cheapest to deliver" or on-the-run cash analog changes. This phenomenon is much more...
  3. bone

    Crude is screwed, man.

    If you are a market or particular commodity specialist and your bread and butter trade went from double digit to low single digit vol and you were smart enough to know that the supply paradigm was seismic enough (fracking pun) and would not change in your foreseeable future then it makes sense...
  4. bone

    The S&P has topped

    This market seems really magnetic about its' trend lines and channels - to date since 2006 that is.
  5. bone

    Crude is screwed, man.

    In terms of Centaurus, around the 2010 timeframe or so US Nat Gas underwent an astonishing trend of oversupply and suppressed volatility. North America was emerging as the preeminent hydrocarbon supplier to the world - so much so that OPEC tried but failed to break it. Being a focused...
  6. bone

    Crude is screwed, man.

    The due diligence process for my consulting business is a two-way street. Existing clients frequently have conversations with potential clients. I can tell you that I vet clients about their willingness to put in hard work - the last thing I want is a client who signs up with me then decides...
  7. bone

    Crude is screwed, man.

    There is no level of certainty in trading unless you're doing something illegal. There's only calculated risk. And finding better risk/reward is defacto edge. No, my real point is that you in particular listen but do not receive very well. You want easy answers to complex issues. You ask the...
  8. bone

    Crude is screwed, man.

    Yep, I have on four different futures energy spreads (3 Nymex, 1 ICE) at this exact moment in time and I could care less if flat price prompt month CL or NG goes up or down. Don't know, don't care really.
  9. bone

    Crude is screwed, man.

    There are few surprises in the OTC market. OPEC negotiations and deals between countries mean that State-Run Oil Company trading desks and international Oil Companies with production agreements with Nation States have their trading desks involved. Few "surprises" among the big commercials...
  10. bone

    Crude is screwed, man.

    Right. I count over 81 ICE OTC Swaps for finished and unfinished crude oil products alone. https://www.theice.com/products/OTC Another bigger factor for products: the OTC bilateral physical market trades that are not financially cleared through ClearPort or ICE LCH. That's where Shell...
  11. bone

    Crude is screwed, man.

    LR is a technical analysis trader, and that's just fine. In fact, I think that retail and most spec traders would be best served to confine their studies to the technical analysis of price data - precisely because of the information and understanding gap I described in my previous post. That's...
  12. bone

    Crude is screwed, man.

    Not a dry hole - an information ignorance gap. No serious oil trader who takes on risk based strictly upon fundamentals gets reliable information off the Internet or from cable TV business channels. In fact, DOE/EIA reports aren't going to tell you as much as you need. I don't think the...
  13. bone

    Crude is screwed, man.

    You and Mav are shouting past each other, which is a shame. If you took the considerable effort to learn more about the intramarket forward curve, you'd realize that commercials are constantly tweaking the oil market (and dozens of other physically delivered commodity markets) in terms of...
  14. bone

    How do you approach trading spreads like this?

    If you're swing trading for 50 tics does the $2 matter ? I've got guys who average ~ $550 per winner on average with one lots for gosh sakes. Firms like Advantage have the buying power to offer TT and CTS on a transactional basis - which is ideal. If you're trying to prop Day trade you're...
  15. bone

    Between Bridges: March 20, 2017 – CME Group Settles Disciplinary Action Alleging Automatic Liquidati

    Sorry, I've never put up a Micro anything order book in my lifetime.
  16. bone

    German Bond Futures - Which one better for daytrading?

    Plenty of traders scalp the Bund to good effect. Some of the more conservative types who enjoy working a bid or offer prefer the Bobl (affectionately called the 'bitch in the middle').
  17. bone

    Between Bridges: March 20, 2017 – CME Group Settles Disciplinary Action Alleging Automatic Liquidati

    Gary DeWaal, the article author, has apparently NEVER seen a Cotton Futures order book. It's worse than Unleaded Gasoline ! Cotton is, IMHO, the gappiest thinnest order book I know of - and that includes the metals.
  18. bone

    How do you approach trading spreads like this?

    You could add both duration and convexity to make it a bit more appealing of a day trade: But I would STILL argue that it's a better looking SWING TRADE.
  19. bone

    How do you approach trading spreads like this?

    Inexpensive, Beautiful SWING TRADE: Shitty Day Trade:
  20. bone

    How do you approach trading spreads like this?

    So, for a Crude Oil Condor May-Jun-Jul-Aug in one lots look at the margin rate: NYM CRUDE OIL LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL FUTURES CL INTRA 1 A 05/2017 1 B 06/2017 1 A 07/2017 1 B 08/2017 $170 USD And you don't need to pay for automation - it will hurt you in the order queue !!!! Simply leg...
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