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Whoa ! That's a bombshell of sorts. Chinese Corporate Debt defaults.

I read the same article - in no way is Simons insinuating that markets are predictive and his use of that adjective is confined strictly to the study of linguistics. I have also read his much earlier pieces in "Institutional Investor". During the heydays at Renaissance, his trading models were...

There exists in this world a Mathematics PhD from Berkeley who did seminal work in cryptography and AI and has to date made over $20B and counting trading in the markets. And he absolutely would not have the stones to insinuate 'powers of prediction'. :banghead:

That is turning out not to be the case any more. Plenty of other Southeast Asian countries are stepping in to the cheap labor/shipping arbitrage game. China does not have a healthy, organic technology development and transfer infrastructure. Without State sponsored financed and coordinated...

This is what was known on the floor as the "Bahamas Spread". Idea being that if you were in perilous straits with your position; you added to it (cannonball) before the market close and took the next flight out to the Bahamas. You came back if it turned out well - you didn't bother returning...

Crude Oil couldn’t resist the strong equity market rally.

During the trading hours I mentioned my guess is one tic in the prompt month if you hit a bid or lift an offer.

Quite honestly, that's not a bad plan at all. It's quantifiable and you know your out at the time of your trade entry - I'd wager that's better than can be said for most independent retail traders.

There is an individual performance component and a group (desk) performance component to bank trading desk bonus pool payouts. So yes, the loss will affect the bonus payouts for everyone on the US Index Trading Desk - traders and analysts.

I've seen this a few times over the Christmas holidays. A couple decades ago a Korean blew out Griffin Trading with a monster loss between Christmas and New Years in the German Bund. Was using give up agreements with other FCM's to cannonball his position.

There's been a great deal of discussion the past few years about European Banks and marginal risk vs. capital metrics, balance sheets, a plethora of non-performing loans, and corporate governance. Also, investors have openly questioned the lack of stringency and the validity with respect to...

If you trade between 9:00 am to about Noon US Eastern time you will be just fine. We've done very well for ourselves with Sugar and Coffee - it's not as thin as possibly you have it pictured in your mind during those hours. The prompt month spreads are a few hundred up. Cocoa's not a bad...

NP. It was a strange turn of opportunity and luck as one sometimes encounters in life. I took a job at Commonwealth Edison straight out of school as a Nuclear Engineer. My specialties were radiation shielding design and robotics (I have multiple Patents in the fields). I worked in the...

When "swing" trading you naturally have wider profit targets and stop-loss levels than you would have trading at much higher frequencies (scalping). The only trader that I've seen that has truly been able to "defend" a position in the literal sense of the word would be a commercial or monster...

When I traded commercial power at a utility I made a special effort to F*** over Enron every chance I got. We relished the opportunity when it presented itself. Even in the ‘90’s they were assholes of the highest caliber. They preyed upon small utilities and co-ops. Enron bought up firm...

I’ve got a buddy who made several million dollars on a CME Yen arbitrage in the 1990’s. Lasted all of about four months - Morgan Stanley figured it out as well and they pinched him for half of his gains over a period of just a couple weeks. Markets are so efficient these days - especially in...

Or, conversely, trading products that don’t model well for you will deplete your account equity down to the point where your expertise is no longer required. Trading is about building account equity and not stroking personal hubris. I cycle in and out of certain markets that don’t “behave” or...

To make things a bit easier for those following at home. The historical part of the chart always looks perfectly sensible and obvious because in hindsight it's like reading yesterday's paper. The moment you enter a trade - you have no clue if the market is going to go up or down. You are...

The California Electricity Crisis: Lessons for the Future Dr. James L. Sweeney, Stanford University "Thus the problem in California was not electricity deregulation; it was price regulation at the retail level and rigid regulation prohibiting long-term contracts at the wholesale level. It was...

I had to read your post twice. Still not sure what your position management rule is. Just a thought: Occam's Razor has been mathematically validated.