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Last print in Nov 2019 is $60.00 :caution:

It was never my intention to make a “Bullish” prediction for crude - my sense is that it will remain rangebound in the $45 - $60 band until the inevitable recession comes about. We’re not likely to sustain $100 oil given the new reality of awesome North American production and reserves.

Just my uninformed wild assed guess - they're dumping the dogs and keeping the stars.

Hubris re-defined... https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6777961/Billionaire-diamond-trader-65-dies-penis-enlargement-surgery.html

Thanks to the ECB's dismal growth forecast, equities are off once again - but thus far, Crude Oil has not followed the broad equity markets.

I traded Bunds (and other European interest rates) for many years. About 2:00 am Eastern time in the US equates to 8:00 am Frankfurt Germany time - that's approximately when the day's first and largest liquidity surge happens. You will also see a smaller liquidity surge at about 9:00 am...

Crude - especially the tail end of the 2019 curve is firm despite the off day in the equities and a mixed session in Natural Gas. Which is bullish for Crude.

The Futures Condor. An intra market spread [same product, different month expiries] using four different futures contracts. An example might be: long CLN19, short CLQ19, short CLU19, long CLV19. By historical norms, like a Futures Butterfly the Futures Condor was meant to either buy or sell...

Can't help but to speculate that yesterday's firmness in the back of the curve (supply) telegraphed today's strong rally on inventory draw down.

Up sharply on EIA data inventory drawdown.

HUGE and "scalping" are a hyperbolic parodox. HUGE is when you hold on to a winning position for days, weeks, months...

You guys missed the easy, big money by a couple decades - but then again, Harris Brumfield knew that in 1996.

There's a bit of strength on the dated expiries versus the prompt months today. Slow otherwise.

Don't deflect on me. It's your thread, bub. You're the one making wild judgemental value statements. I am fortunate enough to have a background where I can add some insight to some of your incorrect characterizations.

My comment makes perfect sense to someone who knows WTF they're talking about. I stated in my post: "As I recall the guys on the equities desk did them in blocks of 10, 20, 40 K at a whack." Yes, the HF I was at traded equities. And energy. And interest rates. And FX. Different product...

I thought I'd add a bit of color beyond that of a retail broker. I've traded on a Hedge Fund Desk, and I've traded on a big Commercial desk. Nobody was interested in front running retail traders out of a penny - quite frankly not enough money in it. I got hired to take on a hell of a lot of...

This is just my own observation, FWIW. You start out by making some incendiary observations that are essentially outdated by twenty years. I read your OP, and it's like watching a Seinfeld rerun. I felt compelled to get out my Soundgarden and Nirvana CD's from storage. Like the concept of...

Yes, you can (and should) model spread differentials - that's the good news. But spread construction is really important - and modeling prompt expiry calendar spreads won't get you very far. Likewise - using rolled, consolidated futures data for dated forward curve data mining is quite...

I'm going to take a pass regarding publicly posting a comment on back-testing. I've found it to be a misunderstood and frequently abused methodology.

That would be most prudent.