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I don't think we will see a backwardated crude market for several years. We just experienced a regime change in the term structure and this supply glut will last for awhile. I am long crude puts and getting extensively long tanker equities, in particular Frontline, Teekay, and Nordic American...

For the fundamentals behind the drop in oil, visit the Contango thread in the energy forum.

Reuters: Med Crude-Urals weakest since July on abundant supplies Platts: Nigerian crudes slide further on weak demand amid glut of cargoes

There is no simple answer to either of those questions, unfortunately. It depends on where the crude originates (North Sea, West Africa, Arab Gulf, Baltic, Med, Black Sea) and the time frame under consideration. Tanker rates are mostly backwardated around the world at the moment. Spot rates...

The Saudis have stated they are willing to increase production if new buyers meet their terms. This rout isn't over yet.

I haven't heard anything since the Dec 10 Bloomberg article, but I imagine he has cut some of his length. If I hear anything different, I'll post.

Getting pretty steep:

I wouldn't put much faith into Boone's predictions, personally. He's "talking his book" as they say.

Any updates?

Platts: China's oil conundrums: Rising crude demand and falling product imports China turns net exporter of products as they quadruple their SPR.

Russia's Urals oil exports seen surging in early January Russia adds two Urals cargoes to preliminary loading plan for early Jan- traders Mother Russia needs revenue.

Full disclosure, I am VERY long FRO. Also long NAT, TNK, and ASC. Here we have some of the highest day rates in years, longer hauls, low interest rates, crude oil in contango, cheap bunkers, tight capacity, increasing crude oil supply, busy Atlantic product arbitrage, and the prospect of a...

What a great book. One of my favorites.

Nigerian January crude oil cargoes struggle to clear on weak demand: sources

Russia, Arab oil producers in no-cut chorus as price dive deepens Russia to boost Q1 daily oil exports by 6.6 pct, q/q - sources The race to zero.

The market is expecting a supply surplus of ~1.25-1.5mm bpd by the end of 1H15 and 1.75-2.0mm bpd by the end of 2H15. Russia will lower their export tax on crude and product beginning in Jan. This should build more Urals and product supply in the Baltic and Black Sea depressing ARA and Med...

Time to weigh in. I think we are witnessing an incredible event in the energy complex. What does everyone think about price action, geopolitics, term structure, volatility, predictions? <Go>

Not a proverb, but compelling none-the-less.

Verified.

Great interview, thanks for posting.