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  1. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    FRO up another 20% today.
  2. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    I think we will get a temporary technical bounce in the mid 40s, so in that, I tend to agree with Mr. Luorio. However I don't think that will be the bottom. Given the supply situation, I expect the market to test "the bottom" for several months until a new range is found.
  3. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    Med Crude-Urals slips in Baltic, Saudi cuts OSPs to Europe
  4. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    I think Brent is going to be trading below WTI by the end of Q115.
  5. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    Great info, thanks for posting. I've read some perspectives that suggest that drop in price, while it will certainly kill some high cost producers in that region, will help lower the cost of production due to the increasing number of idle rigs that need work. The strong that do survive this...
  6. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    It's hard to go wrong with MP. Thanks for posting the news/rumor, I want to encourage others to do the same. Let's make this thread a repository of today's current events in the energy markets.
  7. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    I haven't heard the king's condition is that dire, however I imagine it will mean more of the same should a transition occur. The Russians need revenue, the Saudis want a bigger piece of the global market, other Arab states are fighting to maintain what they currently have, and the US is on the...
  8. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    I was also going to recommend reconsidering your broker. I use IB and have been very pleased over the last few years.
  9. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    Today's curves:
  10. ogarbitrage

    Anyone remember "peak oil" few years back

    Look at Japan. They have become incredibly energy efficient that they have been experiencing structural decline in crude demand for the last 15+ years. Certainly their aging population is a factor, but more importantly high energy costs have driven investment in energy technologies and studies...
  11. ogarbitrage

    Anyone remember "peak oil" few years back

    Now we're just getting encumbered by semantics. All I can say is technology will find a way. Always has, always will.
  12. ogarbitrage

    Anyone remember "peak oil" few years back

    You act as if high prices are not self defeating. Have you noticed the boon for solar energy and electronic cars in the last 5 years? You think you'll still have a gasoline or diesel powered truck when crude is trading $500/bbl? Think for a second.
  13. ogarbitrage

    Anyone remember "peak oil" few years back

    This is the most asinine logic I have seen in quite awhile. Congratulations.
  14. ogarbitrage

    Anyone remember "peak oil" few years back

    We will never run out of oil. It will just become more costly to source and produce.
  15. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    This is just the beginning.
  16. ogarbitrage

    Anyone remember "peak oil" few years back

    You're slightly misinformed.
  17. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    Middle East Crude-Chinaoil sells eighth Upper Zakum cargo to Shell The G/H Dubai spread settled at 1.90/bbl, well over the costs of floating storage in the AG (~1.15/bbl) European Urals market continues slide as CIF Augusta market hits 6-month low 500,000 MT = 3.615m bbls. The Urals...
  18. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    I actually do not mind the debt/equity swaps as I view them as bullish. I also expect FRO to handle their April 2015 bond repayment with relative ease given the Q4/Q1 results and the impending demand from contango and cheaper oil prices. John Fredrikson has managed to survive and thrive in a...
  19. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    DRYS is a dry bulk carrier with no exposure to wet freight. They may benefit from a drop in bunker prices, but they will not experience the same demand for services or appreciation of assets that wet tankers will. The only Teekay asset I like is TNK: Teekay Tankers. TNK owns product tankers...
  20. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    I am avoiding LNG and deep water rig equities like grim death.
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