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  1. M

    Stochastic process for irrational stocks

    HFT is fine when it arbs latency or frontruns retail flow. Option MMs have vega convexity to lean on but you can be sure that stat arbs are getting killed.
  2. M

    IB banning opening new put option positions in GME

    Yeah sure. The MAR straddle is about 370$ while the stock trades at 350. Can you please tell me about that juicy risk/reward after your money went up in flames? Because when the IV drops from 500 back to below 100 your put will still lose money even tho the stock is cut in half while the...
  3. M

    Stochastic process for irrational stocks

    Simple: You sit down, write your model on a piece of paper and throw that into the waste bin. Then you fire up your trading machine, open an orderbook, a time&sales, an option chain, twitter and reddit and start clicking. Trying to model something with no data from the past doesn't make any...
  4. M

    So, with the power shift toward Reddit kiddos..

    Reddit Kiddos are done. Discord just banned the /WSB server and the SEC is putting the ban hammer down 100%. Aside from that: Look at who owns the stock If you still think that the small fry is gonna win... Reddit kiddos going to jail while the whales are laughing all the way to the bank
  5. M

    IB banning opening new put option positions in GME

    Listen...options aren't as ezpz as stocks. You can buy a put and short a put at the same time and still profit when stock goes up. If you lock up one side, you lock up a gammut of different possibilities for risk control and you 100% do not satisfy the need for long puts by just hoping that...
  6. M

    IB banning opening new put option positions in GME

    Because if you buy them there is only the market maker to sell them to you...and they don't want to be short them ;)
  7. M

    IB banning opening new put option positions in GME

    you cannot just say "imma allow buying puts but not shorting them" you either allow trading them or not...what about the dude who wants to open a putspread?
  8. M

    IB banning opening new put option positions in GME

    Guys, IB restricted these puts so you monkeys cannot short them on margin and blow up. So for once be happy that they protect you from doing stupid things that harm your account
  9. M

    why does prop trading have such a high turn over?

    That's the reason why retail loses: Equities Prop Trader: Direct market access, realtime orderbook of every exchange, 200+ order routing options Equities Retailer: Zero commission, gets fleeced on every execution because his orders are sold to market makers to lean against Futures Prop Trader...
  10. M

    why does prop trading have such a high turn over?

    There are prop shops and there are trading arcades. Prop shops for the most part pay a small salary, because they are looking for top talent to trade their book. Today you probably won't get your own book right away but you will start as an analyst to a senior trader. Arcades are places to...
  11. M

    Brazil’s B3 overtakes CME Group in rankings for largest derivatives exchange

    Your nickname is HobbyTrading, that's not professional either :p Jokes aside, nobody cares about the website, it's all about connectivity to their matching engine. And I'm ALSO sure that this isn't as good as CMEs, nevertheless, their products just attracted more volume, period
  12. M

    An Attempt to Learn How to Trade Consistently and Profitably

    Ok, now we come to the meat of things. Right now it doesn't make any sense to put some performance metrics over your results. You have probably less than 1000 trades under your belt so any statistic has low value. You should go through your winning trades 1 by 1 and try to figure out common...
  13. M

    Brazil’s B3 overtakes CME Group in rankings for largest derivatives exchange

    Number of contracts is the only thing that matters. Fees are paid in contracts not as % of notional value->more contracts, more fees, more growth.
  14. M

    why does prop trading have such a high turn over?

    Prop Trading the way it was during the rise of electronic trading 2000-2008 is basically dead and replaced by machines. The average prop shop who had its people trained was more or less a market making operation and most of the guys who worked there were spreaders in short term interest rate...
  15. M

    why does prop trading have such a high turn over?

    Same reasons: No edge, lazy, delusional, overtrading and no hunger for the game
  16. M

    An Attempt to Learn How to Trade Consistently and Profitably

    VIX is NOT a measure of SPX's IV. VIX is a weigthed portfolio of ATM and OTM options which makes is kinda like an ETF. Due to the fact that it's averaged, you already can see what skew effects can do to it (hint: When OTM options become more expensive VIX goes up although ATM stays the same)...
  17. M

    An Attempt to Learn How to Trade Consistently and Profitably

    For the RR around 30DTE makes sense...I mean in the end it's up to you but I always start with the lowest DTE and go longer in terms until the ATM open interest doesn't increase anymore. You basically want the option month with the most action. For calendars you can pick 30dte vs 90dte and...
  18. M

    An Attempt to Learn How to Trade Consistently and Profitably

    This is a good writeup. Just a footnote on these 1-3m and 3-6m ATM calendars: You want to subtract the implied volatility of the 3m ATM put from the implied volatility of the 1m ATM put. Same for the 3m - the 6m. This way you get a quick and dirty view over the term structure, meaning how...
  19. M

    An Attempt to Learn How to Trade Consistently and Profitably

    USDJPY is traditionally used for carry trading because YEN rates have been at zero for a long time. Now that rates everywhere are low, you can also watch EURUSD for example. It's imperative to acknowledge that the only thing you want to watch is the USD. Is it weak or is it strong? I found the...
  20. M

    An Attempt to Learn How to Trade Consistently and Profitably

    Forget the VIX for the moment until you learn more about options and how the VIX is constructed. VIX is a derivative of a derivative of an index. Rather look at the USDJPY as a proxy for the USD - or the DXY if you get the quotes for it - then add the other markets to the mix. Use finviz.com...
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