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After two successive losers in a row, I would think the prudent thing to do would be to cut your position size way back. When you get that money back and put together a few positive days in a row, go ahead and scale your position sizing back up to where it was before.

I used to lease some private office space at Advantage Futures in the CME building. Very good firm with excellent technical support. In terms of sharing a large open space with many other traders - that might make some traders uncomfortable and I think that they should honor that feeling...

They are similar in the sense that if you need absolute certainty in your life - that trading and gambling are not your line of work. The other comments about probabilities are relevant.

+1

We trade futures spreads with what we model as an emerging trend. We do not like to fade one or two or three sigma moves, because since the mid-2000's it has been a very painful way to trade. I used to trade quite a bit of Nat Gas and Power OTC options, and my preference was to trade for vol...

If this functionality were mandatory and not opt-in, then IMHO it would stabilize the markets and would decrease the gamesmanship and spoofing.

ES and ZN have a 2 year correlation of +46%. Corn vs. Wheat is + 90%. Gold vs. ZN is 35% over a 2 year period. Corn vs. Wheat and that currency pair are the only statistically viable pairs you have mentioned. The others are simply not tradeable. The point is especially apparent if you...

The two year correlation daily-close-on-close is - 52.7%. The five year correlation is + 7.7%. So, I reject your original premise for this arbitrage. Additionally, the CME has no SPAN margin credits calculated for this combination, which tells me that the exchange is not willing to provide...

Trend means different things to different traders. Impossible discussion to have without addressing timeframes IMHO. Timeframes in terms of both data sampling frequency and trade position holding periods.

This is the smartest and most lucid post in the entire thread quite honestly.

P&F has always been a favorite study of mine. Market Profile as well. The fact that P&F is 1. largely independent of timeframe sampling, and 2. largely insensitive to sampling size - makes P&F, IMHO, an excellent tool. I have frequently used it to confirm other technical studies. I...

Actually, the correlation between Brent and WTI is not as high as one would think. Over a five year run it is 95%, but for the past two years it is about 83%. Point being, it is more of a divergence play than a true spread trade in terms of being properly hedged.

Getting around the TT patents for the AutoSpreader SmartQuote and Slop settings functionality should prove to be a real trick for CTS. And everyone knows how litigious TT has been through the years.

I think the idea of rapidly flipping spread positions intraday using automation - especially with a non-member exchange rate structure, makes very little sense for most traders.

I think the idea of rapidly flipping spread positions intraday using automation - especially with a non-member exchange rate structure, makes very little sense for most traders.

No on exchange spreads. That's just a traditional order ticket that fills multiple legs that are matched internally at the exchange. About 75% of my clients do very well position trading exchange supported spreads and they do not manually leg spread positions generally speaking. There are...

I've been using TT since 1998, so I know all about the licensing structure and how much it costs me per month. Your comments of course excludes my proponency of position trading exchange supported spreads as a better alternative for most traders. Very selective sniping on your part...

Let me explain the facts. You will get glued, tatooed, and fucked eight ways from Sunday. And I'm being diplomatic about it. You are trying to leg highly correlated products, or you have a fantasy about autospreading through a high speed cable modem, arbitraged products. Taking the other...

And how do you expect to manage the exchange's message-to-fill ratio policy ? You just can't run your automation all day long. I have AutoSpreader because I have to buy the TT Pro license - and I very rarely use the thing. Seriously.

The refined products seem to hold a bid through this much better than CL. We are awash in CL. No shortage of crude, especially in the US and Canada. Lots and lots of it. We really don't need the Arabs that much any more - which is a very recent and profound change in dynamic. And West...