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For the sake of context, please keep in mind that the basis for your OP and your StatOil trade was the price of crude oil ( your own words ). As such, either gloating or lamenting about one day's move in CL with a 120 day historical volatility of 52.51 isn't really on point. Since you are...

I think that's a decent guess. All we really know is that the market currently accepts a valuation of between $45-$55 per barrel at present. In terms of the futures it's my guess that old shorts have covered, old longs have puked, and I would imagine that new longs and new shorts are quite...

To me, at least, the definition of a "legit" prop firm is a firm whose business model does NOT require a deposit or risk capital from the trader, and the trader is hired as and paid as an employee of the firm. While these types of positions are available in Chicago, they tend to hire smart...

If you are long Statoil based strictly upon the price of crude, I think it just a bit too early to rejoice. Three or four weeks of solid closing prices above $55.00 would auger better if that's your premise to own OSE.

One of my clients has transitioned to the live markets, and I would be happy to take on another qualified and motivated client.

There's some really good historical commentary, widely circulated, on the structure of the USO ETF and the forward roll cost ( and more importantly the arbitrage penalty for rolling said ETF ), and the evolution of the ETF to include the use of OTC Swaps in order to "mask" the roll's footprint.

Yes and yes. Refining capacity, margin variability, refinery run pinch points and conversions, etc. offer a lot more dimensionality in the Late Spring and Fall than Crude plays generally speaking.

There are likely very few viewers with any practical experience trading those products on TMX versus those who trade Crude on Nymex and ICE exchanges. Patience.

I agree 100% in terms of there probably not being a trade here at this point in time. The horse has long since left the barn and jumped the fence - and timing markets in terms of countering strong trend moves isn't personally my cup of joe. I think the opportunities are in the distillates at...

I'm curious as to how all of this moisture will affect North American planting this Spring.

I'd like to welcome another new client to the program.

What's "cheap" exactly ? Personally, I'm not real comfortable buying into a textbook bear trend line with lower lows and lower highs.

Euribor Butterfly taken as a sell:

ICE Softs Sugar Condor taken as a buy: SoyMeal Butterfly taken as a buy:

Euribor Butterfly taken as a sell:

Soybean Meal Butterfly taken as a buy:

ICE Softs Sugar Condor taken as a buy:

Yesterday, for example, the June AD contract traded 259 and the OI is < 2K contracts. March traded 106K and the OI is 128K. Not sure that calendar spreads in the currency futures are the place to be - I can't recall any of my clients in that particular trade.

Source: Financial Times, 15th February 2015 http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d23fe0ac-af7f-11e4-a418-00144feab7de.html?ftcamp=crm/email/2015216/nbe/CompaniesBySector/product#slide0 If ExxonMobil chief executive Rex Tillerson really wanted to, he could snap up BP in a single bite. Of all the UK...

Great post. And, just to clarify, you are referring to an ICE exchange-supported spread versus the act of the trader manually via broker and/or electronically on the screen legging into and out of a heat rate spread using financially cleared Power and Nat Gas Swap contracts. I agree that the...