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Sure if you simply “Time” the market and fade clearly established long term trends without confirmatory price action then yeah 39:1 sounds about right.

My bud on the Northern Trust desk tells me it’s just BoNY clearing Repo.

The CME Span Margin Credit for a Gold (GC) versus Silver (SI) spread is 75% and the exchange listed ratio is 1:1 for the inter market spread...

Just too funny ! :p Market timing a long standing trend without some serious price reversal requires serious capital, sleep deprivation and stomach lining. I wish all good fortune in their trading endeavors.

If you have on a fairly illiquid Spread, which you can from time-to-time, this procedure should smooth out closing marks and make them more fairly valuated. As a side note, I typically won’t trade a Spread that has less than 3K open interest. For many of these less traded spreads, there will...

*Just as a PSA* - the commonly cited “ risk free rate of return “ for the purpose of calculating metrics like the Sharpe Ratio is the US Ten Year Note yield. * PSA concluded. *

Sugar has been my best ag trade past four years - and I know dick about the market quite honestly.

I tread quite lightly and take few trades when it comes to livestock and cotton. I really have to have a high confidence threshold...

Are you using the exchange supported Spread? I am. The synthetic Spread expressions with illiquid markets are not practical. BTW, the maintenance margin on that particular Spread is $225...

Here's the take on the Fed Funds Market post financial crisis from the Cleveland Fed... https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsroom-and-events/publications/economic-commentary/2017-economic-commentaries/ec-201707-the-federal-funds-market-since-the-financial-crisis.aspx

Here's a particular Gold Futures Calendar Spread that I've been short for a long time - until recently it's been quite thin, but working best offer I've been able to scale into it over time.

Here's a Feeder Cattle Calendar Spread that I shorted just after the open on Sept 20, and literally came within a single tic of getting stopped out on - getting near to my profit target now. I use modeled volatility and trading range to set stop-loss and profit targets. In hindsight I could...

Here's a Feeder Cattle Calendar Spread that I shorted just after the open on Sept 20, and literally came within a single tic of getting stopped out on - getting near to my profit target now. I use modeled volatility and trading range to set stop-loss and profit targets.

I don't think that a single bar or candle means anything { **with one very notable exception** } - especially in the context of a macro trend. The concept of time is much more relevant ( I reference once again Steidelmeyer ). The more time a market spends at a new price valuation, then the...

I'm pleased to see you give yourself a bit more macro latitude for your premise to work out - love the targets. I wish you good fortune.

Higher highs and higher lows... so classic. Holds a trend line on the Weekly like a champ. Very shallow corrections - vintage accumulation pattern.

Look at the settlement sheet for ICE Gas Oil futures. Look at the spread volume versus the total volume - by my count the implied spreads easily account for more than half the total volume. In several months - it's close to or even all the traded volume for the day ...

And I thought the idea was to NOT day trade but to swing trade...

If a trader makes the strategic decision to analyze and model as many different instruments as practical then yes, you cannot realistically be a fundamentals-driven trader. Earlier in my career when I had no choice but to participate in a very specific energy or interest rate market then yes, I...

I used to trade energy commercially on the production and the user sides in the 1990's. I had legal insider information. To state it another way, I was first to the market with fundamental information. Please trust me when I say that the last price print you see is a distillation of all...