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my previous post WAS an example. Look back around mid June ( when market tanked and huge skew on OTM puts existed) and see how basket/index vols relationship changed drastically, while the correl stayed the same. Its shows you that one cannot simple use the components correl to calculate Index's...

basically yes , but on the paper only. And I can bring one example when even if all are at +1 , it will not stand : huge skew on Index's put that will heavily weighted on mean Index IV.

incorrect . Using the same logic , if all 500 SPX stocks have an IV of 30 ( and equal weighting) , would the Index's IV be 30 too ? Never gonna happen

xt , those all are trade ofs and additional "adjustments" are just a new , stand alone trades (with their own odds and probs). You must be right on direction or vols to make calendars a winners. Good luck

nice trade , Mo. Actually , no future GOOG trade for me. They still kept OCT (possible reporting month ) volts at 30 , and given a non-event last qtr , I don't expect GOOG to run much above 35. There is much better opp right now.

:) Actually , I do ! Yo , B , GOOG volty broke all time low today (22) , are you a seller here?

buy all long gamma you can stomach next week. :)

the ugly old real estate whore on FOX just said " There is a lot of people/money on the sideline , and now ( prices already corrected ) its a good time to buy". Now , where did I heard it before ? hahaha

lol. Bitstream got this thread of topic (again) , it is NOT about MY position. All what I said that SOME people obviously betting on repeat of pre-warning , hence , the heavy otm SEP puts activity. Personally , I am holding OCT straddles/strangles into possible vols ramp and pre-warning is very...

yes .

what are u talking about again , Bit ? Those puts TRIPLED in price at the open and were times 5 later on.You really should stop hanging in chit-chat. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=71376&perpage=6&highlight=jbl&pagenumber=2 and yes , I currently long a bunch of...

JBL is reporting on 9/26 ( OCT expiration). Last qtr JBL issued a pre-warning couple of weeks before scheduled date and stock tanked 27%. Today was a huge activity on SEP 25 and 27.5 puts ; I guess people betting on repeat of last qtr scenario.

those are good odds/payout considering the fact that indices' HV printed single digits lately . Good luck , B

either one of them can be used. In my example above ( very similar to his YHOO situation) , both methods would of show almost the same results ( at extreme).

let's say that a 30 $ stock with IV of 40 has a 10% odds to be above 35$ in 30 days. If two weeks from now stock is at 36$ , will you continue to hold it ? Or take a profit ( close an entire position , or sell 35 put , etc,etc) ?

use "odds and prob" calculator when you enter position. This way you can make better decision later (now , in your case) of what to do if trade goes your way.

what ? No "I'm not into girls" choice ? :)

just in the last couple of days ( in very slow reporting period) so many stocks had a huge intraday swing , SNDA , DELL , BEBE , CRM are just few to mention. A 15% intraday swing is not enough ? With vix at almost all times low ?

why do you need stats for choice "No" ? :)

so bad , huh?