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Michaela , if 1m people start taking a 50/50 bet ones a year , after 19 years few of them ( exactly two , inverse of 2^19) STILL never lost a bet...

:) How can one reverse engineer someone's else strategy without knowing directional/vols bias ? Unless you invented all neutral , works_under_any_condition position... And if you did , good for you , Mav :)

buying back month wings first and then (with price change) selling front month ATM ? Am I close ?

my post wasn't about vega...Your long combo premium ( FEB , MAR , APR) will be higher if price goes up vs going down from here till DEC exp , hence , need more puts at the beginnig of position. The second part was about balancing delta via options ( again , at DEC exp , regardless what DEC...

OC , you may reconsider your put/call ratio for back month. It should be more puts. Vols action aside , if stock goes down 10% ( compare with going up) , your long premium getting tanked because of lower stock nominal at front month exp. Will you do delta adjustments for your longs at DEC exp...

can you give one practical example of " risk management" or possible "adjustment" when trade goes against you ?

today's vols ramp already did the max damage to your position , I don't think you get hurt ( or help) from future vols action which probably will be offset by theta gains from this point. Price change is your main concern now , this stock can ( and did before) easily move 10% over report. Stay...

will the markets repeat 2000 action ? Up and down every day , vols spike , money rotation between Bush and Gore "industries" ..and finally crash.

I know what you mean , I got a lot of those (rules of thumb) too. :)

what are doing when beta changes a lot over one day ( when large % change day dropping out of 20 days calcs). How does its affect current delta position ?

landing money to strangers that I meet in chat rooms is not a gambling , its very secure and proftable biz ; I do it all the time. What is your account # and how much do you need ? :) PS : Riskarb is out and TS is in , sounds like a fair trade , as long I am learning here something

so , you want to double down becouse the rate win is 90%...Why not to trade 5 , or 10 times more next month ? The odds for losing next month are only 1:80 , no ? Sounds like a good deal to me.

OC , APR will never hit 70 , there is no reason for it. FEB will , but not APR. Good luck.

Mav , any history before 82 is irrelevant , IMO. 401k = forced money flow, its just a matter if another bubble market ( like real estate) exists or not as an alternative to equity markets.

:) :) :) My money was on Bit , you are fast.

you are asking for it , man. Watch someone reply with " Sure , I'm using yours , made a fortune".

what is the today's real VIX value in your opinion ? Could it be 9.99 ? :)

hmmm , option to PM daxhunter is missing...I blame Bit (naturally) with everything that happened here lately.

Ben , you really should think twice before taking ANY trade with this stock. This is a non-cyclical event ( happens first time , no historical reference) and you , me or anyone else cannot say at this moment where the IV and price will be before the event and where it will go after .

sorry to hear about your loss , Nitro. I hate to see hard working trader ( and you looks like one of them to me ) losing money