AAPL long 85
July long call = 11.7
Jan short put= 3.80
Stock seats around 85 and tanks to 70 after report. Vols collapsing to 30 (sv) :
Gain on stock = 15,000
Loss on put = 11, 200 ( and exp)
Loss on call = 9,700
PnL = (-5,900 )
Your move , Bob.
LOL , Bob , so suddenly its a Vega/event related trade ? Change in vols was NEVER mentioned on the other site , it always was about neutral trade and some magic rolls .
Q4 , can you show us how you planning to adjust/roll collar position ?
Post a position , then I will make up a stock price action , and then you will make an adjustment . Deal ?
Then everyone can see if collars are "consistently profitable"
sorry x , I confused your post with Daniel's ( he entered DNA 2 weeks ago). You are correct on all the above , if stock didn't moved big in the latest qtrs , spike will not reach previous levels. In case of DNA I "reduced " my expectations to mid-upper 20th for this qtr. Got in at vols=21 .
Google search on " Peter , moollions" returns interesting quote...
" Month after month , I just keep on entering collars on BBY and think a happy thoughts".
of course you had , how could you NOT make money on bullish stratedy ( collars with atm puts and otm calls) on one directional market (up) for the last four years ? Did you outperform other bullish strategies such as verticals , naked puts , long stocks , ect ?
but DV...rolling is really works ( wink wink) and its easy ! I heard one ex rodeo clown made mooollions by dynamically hedging collars. He is running a Dear Abby style column on one of the option's sites. Still very much in touch with his old profession ; posting funny pictures and staff. It's fun !
JAN qtr is always diff from the rest , because many stocks reporting later then usually. Usually about 70% done reporting by end of reporting ( this) month , but its not the same for JAN ( add 1.5-2 weeks).
In another "extreme" scenario ( buy out) verticals will make a 100% profit and collar only around 4%. Here is even more extreme case (but more realistic then stock losing 90% of the value) : stock tanks in pre-market to 200$ , broker sells stock to meet the margins (retail account) and then...
perceived benefit > perceived risk
must know how to isolate other variables ( time is only one of them) to capture "perceived edge"
Read Mav's and others replies on this subject ( for option's edge) , great staff