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That may be, but there are already big notional instruments for trading S&P, why does SPY have to be a big notional one too? If SPY doesn't serve the small time trader market, what does?

Call on XYZ with strike 25, and the price is currently 30. Buying back the option costs the writer $500. Waiting until expiration costs the writer $3,000, which he needs to use to buy 100 shares. Letting an option expire requires way more collateral. It only makes sense if you have gobs...

With more and more retail traders piling in, and S&P climbing higher and higher, when will SPY split? Not all brokerages support partial shares, and it's hard for many people to muster up the cash to even buy one share. On the flip side, SPY being high means there's a lot of leftover cash...

That's the curve at expiration. Not many options are held to expiration, with most traders preferring to close out their position before then. The more interesting graph is how it change over time.

Does your data go farther back than 2018? SPY has been a bumpy road since 1993.

Yeah, I remember this too, but I can't find it easily in my text book. As I recall, they tried grouping portfolios into cohorts of beta, and compared the results of each portfolio at the end. I don't remember low beta stocks doing better, but the high beta stocks definitely did worse.

Not directly related, but there was an article a few year ago talking about why College tuition is so high to begin with. (Student loans would be a non issue if the amount was 1/10th of what they are now). The claim of the article is that tuition has to remain artificially high in order...

Looking at the Balance sheet graph, there was a reduction from June 1st to about July 22. The market pulled back at first, but ended up rallying over this period. I don't think it follows that no one would be willing to slow down.

Good education is a good deal. The reason it costs so much is because it's worth it. The problem is bad education costs just as much, but it's hard to tell the difference between the two before money changes hands.

They are capital gains adjustments. You can look up "ARKQ" here: https://infomemo.theocc.com/infomemo/search-memo

I'm trying to piece together why the fed is pumping $80B a month into the economy, and came up with a simple theory, which I would like you to poke holes in. The Dual Mandate of the Fed is to keep prices steady and maximize employment. As long as these are accomplished, any other side...

Interesting approach, but I suspect that is the stuff of MMs. I suspect it would also be hard to trade that in my small account, since the offset of the index options with index futures would blow my non-portfolio margin out.

If I could pry a little more, how do you decide to exit these if they don't move the way you want?

Thanks for the article. I have a small position on TSMC, and was planning on holding for less than month. This article makes it sound like the cycles are more predictable, implying the cycle time is somewhere around the time it takes to build a new fab. I am now leaning towards holding...

Do you have positions on this?

Yes. I saw the claim in a video about government debt, and was amazed by the result. The guy goes on to claim that there are only like 2 which actually increase tax revenue, but they are regressive taxes:

This is true, but the opposite is also true. Raising taxes also has no discernible impact on economic growth. Tax rates don't affect tax revenues. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hauser%27s_law

Instead of using any technical indicators, I connect a camera to a large blob of fat between my ears. I flash red and green rectangles at the camera, and see if the fat produces electricity.

Sorry for a possibly dumb question, but why isn't asset correlation a tradable security? For example, suppose I want to buy stock in two companies, but they are highly correlated. If there was some instrument that I could short, representing the correlation between the two, I could hedge...

What possible inflation metric could they be using?